瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil supply issues lack a substantial easing expectation, butadiene supply is generally tight, and butadiene rubber production faces high - cost and raw material supply shortage problems. It is expected that short - term supply reduction will drive inventory decline [2]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Currently, the production schedules of tire enterprises have basically returned to normal levels, which supports the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. The domestic and foreign sales of semi - steel tire enterprises are relatively stable, with general overall shipment performance. The domestic sales shipments of all - steel tire enterprises are active, and the inventory removal rhythm has accelerated. Due to the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, there are still export resistances in some regions for tire enterprises, and they will adjust the production schedules for domestic and foreign sales according to their own order situations. There is a short - term expectation of a slight decline [2]. - Due to the uncertainty risk of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the short - term synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 15,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 19,379, a decrease of 2,314; the synthetic rubber 5 - 6 spread is 240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 22,130 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 15,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 15,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 15,500 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 15,500 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 100 yuan/ton; Brent crude oil is 103.14 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.68 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 1,059.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 82.5 US dollars/ton; the Northeast Asian ethylene price is 1,150 US dollars/ton, an increase of 150 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,050 US dollars/ton, an increase of 150 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 98.71 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.98 US dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 15,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, with no change; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 72.7%, a decrease of 3.58 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week is 31,000 tons, a decrease of 8,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.81%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 79.98%, a decrease of 1.64 percentage points; the weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 2,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 872 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 44,400 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 35,350 tons, an increase of 950 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 9,080 tons, an increase of 60 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 77.71%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 70.22%, an increase of 4.32 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 43.91 days, a decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 43.84 days, an increase of 0.74 days [2]. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a week - on - week increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a week - on - week increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The production schedules of domestic tire enterprises have basically returned to normal levels, which supports the overall sample enterprise capacity utilization rate. Due to the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, there are still export resistances in some regions for tire enterprises, and there is an expectation of a slight decline [2]. - In February 2026, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease compared with January 2025 and an about 8% decrease compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck industry in China exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 44,400 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.33%. This week, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber production enterprises increased slightly overall, while the inventory of trading enterprises changed little [2].