瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260316

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the production of urea slightly decreased as two shut - down plants resumed production, while continuing the previous cycle's plant changes. The high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants increased, leading to more consumption of urea in the industry. In the Hebei region, more plants are expected to resume production or increase their loads, and the operating rate is expected to continue rising. Recently, due to the international geopolitical conflict, the market trading sentiment has been boosted, and the downstream's enthusiasm for receiving goods has increased again, facilitating the smooth shipment of urea plants. Most urea enterprises' inventories in various regions have decreased to different extents, and the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased last week, with a short - term expectation of continued inventory reduction. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has pushed international prices to a high level. Affected by market sentiment, the domestic urea market fluctuates strongly, but the factory quotes are relatively stable due to the guidance price. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1950 in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 11; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 39 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 16. The trading volume of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 249,604 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 17,683; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is - 48,333. The number of exchange warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou urea is 8055 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong are 1900 yuan/ton, with no change in Hebei and Shandong and a 10 - yuan increase in Jiangsu; the price in Henan is 1870 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan increase; the price in Anhui is 1890 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 570 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 77.5; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 645 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 80 [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 18.9 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 95.76 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.05 million tons. The operating rate of urea enterprises is 93.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the daily output of urea is 219,700 tons, with no change. The export volume of urea is 28 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 32 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,289,610 tons, with an increase of 271,170 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 45.56%, with a week - on - week increase of 8.54%; the operating rate of melamine is 53.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 286 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 534 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.1799 million tons, with an increase of 184,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,200 tons, with an increase of 2,500 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.76 million tons, a decrease of 14.05 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.79%. As of March 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 18.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.53%. As of March 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.5376 million tons, a decrease of 0.03 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 93.29%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous period, showing a slight downward trend. Recently, the domestic urea output has slightly decreased. This week, 2 enterprises' plants are planned to shut down, and 3 shut - down enterprises' plants may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the output is expected to have little fluctuation. Recently, agricultural demand has decreased, but due to strong market sentiment, a few dealers have replenished their stocks [3] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]