瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month market, but the market has already reacted in advance, so the overall impact is limited [2]. - The end of the anti - dumping final ruling on Canadian rapeseed will increase imports in the later period, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has anticipated this, and the impact on the futures price is limited [2]. - Affected by the geopolitical situation and the possible tightening of Indonesian exports, the rapeseed oil futures price follows the palm oil to strengthen, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. - Affected by the decline of US soybeans, rapeseed meal closed down significantly today, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9948 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2482 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) is 119 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) is 336 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is - 13461 lots, up 819 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 147961 lots, down 47734 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 1125 sheets, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2261 sheets, down 50 sheets [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 739.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 5.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 6103 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2680 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the oil - meal ratio is 3.87, up 0.17 [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10521.25 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5455.57 yuan/ton, up 11.07 yuan [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 592 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 198 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 10040 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3320 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is - 47 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200,000 tons, unchanged; the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, up 4.8 percentage points [2]. - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 220,000 tons, up 50,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 238,200 tons, up 23,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 6,000 tons, down 4,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 15,000 tons, up 8,500 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 255,500 tons, down 5,500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 80,500 tons, down 12,400 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0 tons, down 8,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 283,000 tons, down 15,000 tons [2]. - The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is - 180 tons, down 180 tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 540 tons, up 540 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3,008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 35.12%, up 6.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 35.13%, up 6.42 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 28.16%, up 6.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.86%, up 2.12 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 23.28%, down 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 23.28%, down 0.66 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.82%, up 0.23 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.91%, up 0.14 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Statistics Canada released the annual oilseed crushing statistics, showing that in 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of Canadian oilseed crushing enterprises reached a record high of 11.6 million tons, an increase of 1.6% compared with 2024, and it was the third consecutive year of record - high. The record - high crushing volume was due to the record rapeseed harvest in 2025 (13.3% higher than in 2024) and a decrease in exports (12.5% lower than in 2024) [2]. - Affected by the escalation of the geopolitical situation and the soaring crude oil price, the US soybean biofuel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil. Under the strong support of US soybean crushing, the US soybean market has risen. Recently, the market has mainly focused on the impact of geopolitical conflicts [2]. - The planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 is expected to increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres among traders [2]. - The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2]. - The Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs said that if the government needs to reduce the impact of rising international oil prices on the budget, it may impose additional taxes on specific commodities such as palm oil, and the market expects that Indonesian palm oil exports may tighten [2].