广发期货《有色》日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Zinc - Zinc supply - demand fundamentals are generally good, but high domestic inventories restrict upward price movement. Short - term prices may oscillate weakly, with the main contract supported at 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - level guidance [2]. Copper - In the short term, the inventory - related structural contradictions that previously drove copper prices up have been largely resolved. Prices are under pressure due to reduced market risk appetite and may face a phased adjustment. However, the long - term supply - demand logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments may offer opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is expected to find support around 98,000 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel - Overseas macro uncertainties are increasing, and raw material - end contradictions are accumulating, providing support for prices. Demand has slightly improved, but high inventories still pose a constraint. The market is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract running between 134,000 - 145,000 yuan/ton [5]. Stainless Steel - Overseas macro risks are uncertain, raw material supply is tight, providing strong cost support. Steel mills' production schedules are increasing, and demand is gradually recovering. The market will likely see an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract trading in the 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton range [8]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with a strategy of being bearish on rallies. For aluminum, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and prices will oscillate at high levels. The LME's spot tightness and high domestic inventories create a divergence in drivers. In the long run, the global supply - demand balance remains tight, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The short - term main contract for Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade between 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum Alloy - High raw material costs strongly support ADC12 prices, but slow - growing demand and the negative effects of high prices are emerging. The market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern, with the main contract trading between 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - In the short term, tin prices are expected to be weak due to the continued escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the impact on market risk sentiment. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices remains, and short - term adjustments may offer long - term long - position opportunities. Attention should be paid to the performance of tin prices at the 350,000 - yuan level [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Geopolitical conflicts increase market uncertainties. The trading momentum of the new - energy sector is weakening. Fundamentally, the market maintains resilience with both supply and demand increasing. The market will likely see wide - range oscillatory adjustments in the short term, with the main contract trading between 148,000 - 162,000 yuan/ton [16]. Industrial Silicon - Rising costs may strongly support the bottom of industrial silicon prices. Currently, supply is growing rapidly, demand is growing slightly, and inventories are accumulating again. Attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection, electricity prices, and cost fluctuations. It is advisable to operate with caution, stay on the sidelines, or build long positions on dips [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is facing oversupply pressure, with prices under continuous downward pressure due to large inventories. The relationship between downstream demand and prices is weak. In the long run, the demand for energy - security guarantees may benefit the development of the photovoltaic industry. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, or consider going long after the market stabilizes while controlling positions and setting stop - losses [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Zinc - Price and Spread: The current price of SMM 0 zinc ingots is 24,080 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.95%. The import profit and loss are - 20.66 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the refined zinc production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 9.99% month - on - month. The galvanizing start - up rate was 53%, an increase of 13.94 percentage points [2]. Copper - Price and Basis: The current price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 100,515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.15%. The refined - scrap price difference is 475 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 20.18% [4]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month. The electrolytic copper rod start - up rate was 72.92%, an increase of 10.45 percentage points [4]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The current price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 141,350 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous value, with an increase of 0.28%. The futures import profit and loss are 945 yuan/ton, down 302 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 24.22% [5]. - Supply, Demand and Inventory: China's refined nickel production in the current period was 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month. SHFE inventory was 63,681 tons, an increase of 3.10% week - on - week [5]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The current price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The current price - futures price difference is 430 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.36% [8]. - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.9008 million tons, an increase of 44.07% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 532,100 tons, a decrease of 1.19% week - on - week [8]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: The current price of SMM A00 aluminum is 25,120 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.55%. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss are - 4,222 yuan/ton, down 248.1 yuan/ton from the previous value [11]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the alumina production was 6.6002 million tons, a decrease of 10.63% month - on - month. The aluminum profile start - up rate was 51.8%, an increase of 16.40 percentage points [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The current price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 25,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 is - 420 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [12]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 41.31% month - on - month. The regenerated aluminum alloy start - up rate was 31.34%, a decrease of 22.6 percentage points week - on - week [12]. Tin - Price and Spread: The current price of SMM 1 tin is 392,650 yuan/ton, down 6,050 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 1.54%. The import profit and loss are - 13,594.90 yuan/ton, down 5,300.71 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 63.91% [13]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the tin ore import volume was 17,637 tons, an increase of 16.81% year - on - year. In February, the SMM refined tin production was 15,100 tons, a decrease of 23.91% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: The current average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous value, with an increase of 0.63%. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is 6,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,900 yuan/ton from the previous value [16]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, a decrease of 15.13% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 111,503 tons, a decrease of 10.57% month - on - month [16]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Spread: The current price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) is 525 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 5.41% [18]. - Fundamental Data: The national industrial silicon production was 275,700 tons, a decrease of 26.58% month - on - month. The national start - up rate was 38.02%, a decrease of 21.33 percentage points [18]. Polysilicon - Price and Spread: The current average price of N - type re - feed polysilicon is 0 yuan/kg, down 46,000 yuan/kg from the previous value, with a decline of 100%. The main futures contract price is 42,040 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 1.68% [20]. - Fundamental Data: The polysilicon production was 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23.61% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory was 357,000 tons, an increase of 2.59% week - on - week [20].