建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's concern about the obstruction of crude oil supply outweighs the stabilizing signal released by the strategic petroleum reserve release. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, and international oil prices have once again exceeded the $100 mark. The center of gravity of polyolefins has moved upward. The driving logic of polyolefins has gradually evolved from single cost support to dual - push of "cost increase and substantial supply contraction". In the short term, oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. Due to the tight raw material supply, upstream enterprises have actively reduced their production loads. There is a window period for the commissioning of new plants in the first half of the year, and the supply contraction during the regular maintenance period from March to April may exceed expectations. The downstream start - up has increased month - on - month, but after the replenishment cycle ends and the market fluctuates greatly, the downstream's willingness to chase high prices has cooled, and there is resistance to continuously rising raw materials. Overall, the high volatility dilutes the impact of news, the market sentiment has become somewhat dull, and the polyolefin market will maintain a pattern of strong shocks and upward - moving center of gravity under the dual drive of cost support and supply contraction [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - International oil prices have exceeded $100 again. The center of gravity of polyolefins has moved upward. L2605 closed at 8,677 yuan/ton, up 247 yuan/ton (2.93%), with a trading volume of 980,000 lots and an increase in open interest by 2,424 to 344,947 lots. PP2605 closed at 8,857 yuan/ton, up 276 yuan (3.22%), with open interest decreasing by 4,918 lots to 415,800 lots. The driving logic of polyolefins has changed, and the market will maintain a strong - shock and upward - moving pattern [6] 3.2 Industry News - On March 16, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 860,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase (4.88%) from the previous working day, compared with 845,000 tons in the same period last year. PE market prices rose in some areas. The price of LLDPE in North China was 8,370 - 9,100 yuan/ton, 8,650 - 9,200 yuan/ton in East China, and 8,750 - 9,050 yuan/ton in South China. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 8,000 - 8,050 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous working day. The spot market atmosphere of PP was boosted, with the mainstream price of drawn PP in North China at 8,550 - 8,750 yuan/ton, 8,650 - 8,800 yuan/ton in East China, and 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ton in South China [7][8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][13][16]