LPG早报-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Last week, the futures market fluctuated significantly with an upward central tendency, mainly following the oil price. The basis fluctuated sharply, and the latest value was -321 (+346). The spread between April and May was 132 (+5). The number of warehouse receipts was 3108 lots (-1544). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether post-5430 (+280). The domestic shortage problem in April is likely inevitable, and it is expected to be more severe in East and South China than in Shandong. In the short term, the futures market may still follow the oil price, and the spread between months will be strong [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Quotes - On March 16, the PG2604 contract closed at 5884 (+172) at 3 pm, with a spread of 140 (+8) between April and May. The number of warehouse receipts was 1800 (-1308). The night session closed at 5810 (-29), with a spread of 116 (-24) between April and May. Shandong civil gas was at 5520 (+190), and the overall trading atmosphere was fair. Shandong ether post was at 5420 (+0), with controllable shipments and inventory at mainstream manufacturers, but the downstream showed signs of weakness in following the price increase. Longkou Port propane was at 7200 (+0), and the Shandong propylene price was 8025 (-25). The East China market declined steadily, with mainstream transactions at 5900 - 6340 yuan/ton, and demand was average, with high-price refineries having difficulty in shipping. As of 11 pm, FEI was at 792 (+21), with a spread of 87 (+5) between April and May. The FEI - MOPJ was -128 (-8) [3]. Weekly View - The futures market fluctuated significantly last week with an upward central tendency, mainly following the oil price. The basis fluctuated sharply, and the latest value was -321 (+346). The spread between April and May was 132 (+5). The number of warehouse receipts was 3108 lots (-1544). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether post-5430 (+280). Shandong civil gas was at 5550 (+610), and East China civil gas was at 6159 (+1178). The FEI spread was 84 US dollars (+27), and the oil - gas price ratio fluctuated and declined. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 52.4 (-45). The CIF discount for South China CP propane was 402 (+30), and the FOB discounts for AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 104.75 (+12.75), 200.6 (+41.7), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -126 (-59). The PDH spot profit strengthened significantly. The port inventory ratio was 35.05% (-5.5 pct). The external release of liquefied gas sample enterprises was 54.4 tons (-1.8). The PDH operating rate was 63.23 (-1.7 pct). The core issue in the future is when the Strait of Hormuz will resume traffic, and short - term spot quotes mainly depend on the international oil price. The domestic shortage problem in April is likely inevitable, and it is expected to be more severe in East and South China than in Shandong. In the short term, the futures market may still follow the oil price, and the spread between months will be strong [3].