集运早报-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The transmission path of the geopolitical event to the European line is complex and highly uncertain. It is recommended to avoid the high volatility risk of unilateral trading and look for arbitrage opportunities brought by the valuation of monthly spreads. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. Although historically, the reverse spreads of 6 - 7 and 6 - 8 are reasonably valued, it still depends on the duration of the geopolitical situation. If the issue is resolved in May, the current structure is also reasonable [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For contract EC2604, the previous closing price was 1938.8, with a decline of 1.59%, a basis of - 393.3, a trading volume of 38449, an open interest of 24603, and an open interest change of - 438 [2] - For contract EC2605, the price was 2175.0, with a decline of 1.83%, a basis of - 629.5, a trading volume of 2285, an open interest of 1957, and an open interest change of - 203 [2] - For contract EC2606, the price was 2394.4, with a decline of 1.87%, a basis of - 848.9, a trading volume of 12680, an open interest of 14383, and an open interest change of 98 [2] - For contract EC2607, the price was 2500.6, with a decline of 0.87%, a basis of - 955.1, a trading volume not provided, an open interest of 775, and an open interest change of 3 [2] - For contract EC2608, the price was 2375.0, with an increase of 0.30%, a basis of - 829.5, a trading volume of 1331, an open interest of 2868, and an open interest change of - 180 [2] - For contract EC2609, the price was 1716.8, with a decline of 0.65%, a basis of - 171.3, a trading volume not provided, an open interest of 576, and an open interest change of - 6 [2] - For contract EC2610, the price was 1568.0, with a decline of 0.82%, a basis of - 22.5, a trading volume of 3635, an open interest of 8472, and an open interest change of - 93 [2] - For contract EC2612, the price was 1814.0, with a decline of 2.90%, a basis of - 268.5, a trading volume of 102, an open interest of 403, and an open interest change of 0 [2] Month - spread Information - The month - spread of EC2604 - 2606 was - 416.8, with a day - on - day increase of 14.3 and a week - on - week decrease of 134.5 [2] - The month - spread of EC2604 - 2605 was - 186.3, with a day - on - day increase of 9.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 59.1 [2] - The month - spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 856.5, with a day - on - day decrease of 32.6 and a week - on - week increase of 115.6 [2] Spot and Index Information - The spot price (European line) on March 9, 2026, was 1545.46, with a 5.61% increase compared to the previous period and a - 7.00% decrease in the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European line) index on March 13, 2026, was 1618 dollars/TEU, with an 11.43% increase compared to the previous period and a 2.25% increase in the previous period [2] European Line Spot Situation - In late March, OA and PA alliances and MSC announced price increases to around 4000 US dollars [3] - In Week 12, MSK quoted 2250 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase compared to the previous week), QA alliance quoted 2700 - 2800 US dollars, PA alliance quoted 2200 US dollars (a 200 - dollar decrease for large - volume orders), and MSC quoted 2740 US dollars (a 200 - dollar decrease for large - volume orders). The average was 2450 US dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market [3] - In Week 13, MSK kept the price at 2250 US dollars, and other shipping companies quoted around 2700 - 3000 US dollars. On Monday, ONE's Week 13 quote dropped from 2755 US dollars to 2445 US dollars at 1:30 pm and then was adjusted back to 2755 US dollars after the market closed, possibly due to an internal staff operation error [3] News - On March 16, the media reported that the Iranian foreign minister had text - exchanged with Witkoff, which the Iranian foreign minister denied [4] - On March 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that there had been no information exchange between Iran and the US, Tehran had not proposed a cease - fire request, and "the war must end in a way that ensures it will not happen again" [4] - Two senior White House officials said that Iran had recently tried to contact the Trump administration through multiple channels to restart diplomatic negotiations, but President Trump refused to resume negotiations. Iranian officials tried to contact US Middle East envoy Witkoff and other government officials, but Trump instructed the team not to negotiate for the time being and hoped to continue military operations. Araqchi denied recent contact with Witkoff and said that the last contact occurred before the US launched new military operations against Iran [4]