建信期货棉花日报-20260317

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: March 17, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The spot cotton price index 328 grade is 16,884 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream demand is supported during the peak season, and short - term external markets are strengthening. Attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US talks. [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. For futures contracts, CF2605 closed at 15,480 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; CF2609 at 15,522 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; CF2701 at 15,880 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The spot cotton price index 328 grade rose 7 yuan/ton to 16,884 yuan/ton. [7] - Industry Situation: The overall trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market is stable and improving, and the downstream shipment volume is increasing. The all - cotton grey fabric market is stable, but the walking speed is slower than before. The demand for high - count and high - density grey fabrics is still good. [8] - Macro and International Factors: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held from March 14th to 17th, and the 301 survey is being analyzed. The net position of CFTC US cotton funds rebounded week - on - week, the weekly signing and shipment are at a peak, the drought index in the main producing areas is high, and a strong El Niño is expected to form. The US cotton price broke through the previous high. [8] - Domestic Factors: The National Development and Reform Commission officially announced a 300,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota for 2026. The quota number is normal, and the release time is earlier than in the past three years, with limited impact on the overall supply - demand pattern of the domestic cotton market in the 2026/27 season. From January to February 2026, the cumulative income of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles was 283.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. The downstream finished product inventory decreased, and the startup rate rebounded significantly. [8] 3.2 Industry News - Brazil's estimated cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season is 2.0136 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The estimated single - yield is 1,885 kg/hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The estimated output is 3.7951 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, price spreads between different futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the RMB and the Indian rupee. [16][17][18]