大越期货燃料油早报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by multiple factors such as a significant reduction in supply from the Middle East, unfeasible European - to - Singapore arbitrage due to high freight rates, and reduced production by Asian refiners because of a lack of crude oil. The supply - side pressure continues to support fuel oil prices. The fuel oil prices are expected to remain in a high - level volatile range, with FU2605 operating between 4600 - 4750 and LU2605 between 5400 - 5550 [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by multiple factors. The supply - side pressure continues to support prices, and the fuel oil prices are expected to maintain high - level volatile operations. FU2605 is predicted to run in the 4600 - 4750 range, and LU2605 in the 5400 - 5550 range [3] 3.2 Long - and Short - Term Concerns -利多 factors include the Middle East situation being turbulent and the Strait having poor passage.利空 factors are the Trump administration's TACO situation and the upstream crude oil being under pressure. The market is driven by the resonance of supply - side geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Supply: Supply from the Middle East has significantly decreased, and European - to - Singapore arbitrage is unfeasible due to high freight rates. Asian refiners have reduced production because of a lack of crude oil. In the week ending March 11, there were no fuel oil imports from Europe for the second consecutive week, and no fuel oil arrived from Russia. The Middle East fuel oil imports in Singapore that week decreased by 80.5% to 13000 tons compared with the previous week [3] - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 513 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 791 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [3] - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of March 11 was 24.499 million barrels, a decrease of 1.25 million barrels [3] - Market Trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The main position of high - sulfur fuel oil is short, with short positions decreasing; the main position of low - sulfur fuel oil is long, with long positions decreasing [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The previous value of the FU main - contract futures price was 4762, the current value is 4790, with a rise of 28 and an increase rate of 0.59%. The previous value of the LU main - contract futures price was 5607, the current value is 5636, with a rise of 29 and an increase rate of 0.52%. The previous value of the FU basis was 441, the current value is 513, with a rise of 71.11 and an increase rate of 16.11%. The previous value of the LU basis was 1716, the current value is 791, with a decrease of 925 and a decrease rate of 54% [5] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on December 31, 2025, was 22.659 million barrels, an increase of 0.87 million barrels. As of March 11, 2026, the inventory was 24.499 million barrels, a decrease of 1.25 million barrels [8]