大越期货尿素早报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bullish, with high daily production and operating rates year-on-year, expected to remain high, and overall supply is relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily reached the end of its phased cycle, and comprehensive inventories have increased. The international price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, widening the price difference between domestic and foreign exports. The domestic price increase is limited by guidance. It is expected that the main urea contract will fluctuate strongly today [4]. - Bullish factors include the gradual transition of agricultural demand to the peak season and the continuous strengthening of overseas prices. Bearish factors include the historical high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rates are at a high level year-on-year, and daily production is expected to remain high, with overall supply being relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily reached the end of its phased cycle, and comprehensive inventories have increased. The international price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, widening the price difference between domestic and foreign exports. The domestic price increase is limited by guidance. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1870 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is -30, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.6%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.147 million tons (-14,200 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average of the main UR contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. Daily production is at a high level year-on-year, industrial demand is differentiated, agricultural demand has reached the peak of its phased cycle, and inventories are increasing. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate strongly today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1870 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1900 | 11 | Warehouse Receipt | 8055 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1900 | 0 | Basis | -30 | -11 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 114.7 | 0 | | Henan Spot | 1870 | 0 | UR01 | 1902 | 25 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 95.8 | 0 | | FOB China | 4448 | | UR05 | 1900 | 11 | UR Port Inventory | 18.9 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1939 | 27 | | | | [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]