大越期货纯碱早报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are bearish as the production load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II project is increasing, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the overall supply is expected to be abundant, the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass is declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at the highest level in the same period in history. The basis shows that the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is also bearish. The inventory is above the 5-year average, which is bearish. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. However, the price is running above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is upward, which is bullish. In general, due to the cost support, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: The production load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II project is increasing, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the overall supply is expected to be abundant; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass is declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at the highest level in the same period in history, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,230 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,256 yuan/ton, and the basis is -26 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the cost support, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Likely to Rise: There is less cold repair of downstream float glass, and the output remains stable; the conflict between the United States and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - Likely to Fall: The production load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line is increasing, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the output is expected to remain at a high level. The production of heavy soda ash downstream photovoltaic glass is decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low-end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,277 | 1,255 | -22 | | Current Value | 1,256 | 1,230 | -26 | | Change Rate | -1.64% | -1.99% | 18.18% | [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [11]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia-alkali method is -94.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co-production method is 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14]. 3.6 Soda Ash开工率、产能产量 - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87% [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 809,200 tons, including 428,300 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [19]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda Ash Sales Ratio: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash is 101.92% [22]. - Soda Ash Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 146,900 tons, and the operating rate is 71.05% [25]. - Photovoltaic Glass: Not provided in the content 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [30]. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Imports | Exports | Net Imports | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Gap (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3,035 | 2,715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | -138 | 2,577 | 2,517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3,087 | 2,583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | -109 | 2,474 | 2,523 | -49 | 1.85% | -4.86% | -4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3,247 | 2,804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | -125 | 2,679 | 2,631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3,317 | 2,757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | -102 | 2,655 | 2,607 | 48 | 2.16% | -1.68% | -0.90% | -0.91% | | 2021 | 3,288 | 2,892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | -50 | 2,842 | 2,764 | 78 | -0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3,114 | 2,944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | -195 | 2,749 | 2,913 | -164 | -5.29% | 1.80% | -3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3,342 | 3,228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | -62 | 3,166 | 3,155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3,930 | 3,650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | -114 | 3,536 | 3,379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [31]