大越期货沪铝早报-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral, with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion and domestic supply reaching its ceiling, while downstream demand is not strong, and the real estate market remains weak, along with short - term volatile macro - sentiment [2] - The basis is - 390, with the spot price at 24780, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum inventory increased by 21927 tons to 416425 tons last week, which is neutral [2] - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2] - The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2] - In the long term, carbon neutrality will trigger changes in the aluminum industry, which is bullish for aluminum prices. Due to the volatile macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - The aluminum industry's fundamentals are affected by carbon neutrality, demand, and macro - sentiment, with an overall neutral outlook [2] - The basis shows a bearish signal, while the price trend relative to the 20 - day moving average and the main positions are bullish, and the inventory situation is neutral [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts [3] - Bearish factors: the global economy is not optimistic, high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption, and the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3] Daily Summary - Shanghai's spot price decreased by 375, Nanchu's decreased by 450, and Yangtze River's decreased by 400. The SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 29728 tons, and the LME inventory (daily) decreased by 425 tons [4] Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 - 2023, China's aluminum market was mostly in short supply, with shortages of 47.61, 68.61, - 1.3, 14.2, 29.98, and 4.31 million tons respectively. In 2024, it is expected to have a surplus of 15 million tons [23]