Report Information - Report Name: Grease Morning Report - Date: March 17, 2026 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact Information: TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate strongly. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month. Entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8900, the basis is 184, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the subsequent supply pressure decreases. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9890, the basis is 120, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the subsequent supply pressure decreases. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10430, the basis is 482, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Imported Soybean Inventory: Not detailed in the text, only mentioned [6] - Soybean Oil Inventory: On January 9, it was 1.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2] - Soybean Meal Inventory: Data charts from 2015 - 2025 are provided, but no specific current data is given [9][10] - Oil Mill Soybean Pressing: Data charts from 2015 - 2025 are provided, but no specific current data is given [11][12] - Palm Oil Inventory: On January 9, it was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3] - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: On January 9, it was 250,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4] - Rapeseed Inventory: Data charts from 2015 - 2025 are provided, but no specific current data is given [21][22] - Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory: Data charts from 2015 - 2019 are provided, but no specific current data is given [23][24] Demand - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: Data charts from 2015 - 2025 are provided, but no specific current data is given [13][14] - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: Data charts from 2015 - 2025 are provided, but no specific current data is given [15][16]
大越期货油脂早报-20260317
Da Yue Qi Huo·2026-03-17 02:13