大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260317

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The external market rebounded, and the price returned above the 20 - day moving average, continuing to fluctuate around it. Supply increased in March, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. There was a strong bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. The price of nickel - iron was weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - Stainless Steel: The spot stainless steel price remained flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price was firm, and Indonesia's demand was strong. The nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the cost line provided strong support. Stainless steel inventories declined slightly, and demand was weak. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures: On March 16, compared with March 13, the price of SHFE nickel main contract decreased by 530 to 136,400; the price of LME nickel increased by 165 to 17,485; the price of stainless steel main contract decreased by 70 to 14,120. The nickel index increased by 450 to 136,500, and the cold - rolled index decreased by 76 to 13,698 [10]. - Spot: On March 16, compared with March 13, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 2,650 to 138,700; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 2,650 to 142,100; the price of 1 imported nickel decreased by 2,700 to 135,250; the price of nickel beans decreased by 2,700 to 137,850. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 13, the SHFE nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively. On March 16, compared with March 13, LME nickel inventory decreased by 744 to 283,914, nickel warehouse receipts increased by 845 to 57,307, and the total inventory increased by 101 to 341,221 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 9,200 tons. On March 16, compared with March 13, the stainless steel warehouse receipts increased by 1,534 to 52,714 [17][18]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 16, compared with March 13, the prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5% and Ni0.9%) remained unchanged at 80 and 34.5 US dollars per wet ton respectively. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) decreased by 0.75 to 1,094.99 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel (below 2) remained unchanged at 3,675 yuan per ton [21]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional cost was 14,184, the scrap steel production cost was 14,079, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 17,873 [23]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 136,742 yuan per ton [26].