有色早报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a mid - term bullish view on copper, believing it has demand growth and supply constraints. For aluminum, it suggests a strategy of buying on dips in the short - to - medium term. Zinc is expected to have some short - term price support. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to trade in a range. Lead is expected to have a weak and volatile price. Tin's price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity, with strong upward potential in a loose liquidity environment and large downward adjustment space in a tightened one. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs and in the long - term, cycle at the bottom. Lithium carbonate is in a tight balance in the short - term, with potential for inventory build - up in the off - season [1][2][5][9][12][15][19][22]. 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From March 10 to March 16, the spot price of Shanghai copper had a change of - 25, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 203, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 7935, the spot import profit increased by 674.35, and the three - month import profit increased by 291.43 [1]. - Market Situation: This week, copper prices oscillated downward due to macro - geopolitical disturbances. Overseas, there are concerns about China's consumption ability. In the domestic scrap copper market, the resumption of production of recycling enterprises is slower than usual, and the supply of scrap copper is tight, which may drive the further reduction of refined copper inventory. The mid - term outlook for copper is bullish [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From March 10 to March 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 330, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price decreased by 330, the Guangdong aluminum ingot price decreased by 300, the domestic alumina price increased by 3, the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE exchange inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum C - 3M increased by 2.17, the LME inventory decreased by 2475, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 1475 [1]. - Market Situation: A 600,000 - ton aluminum plant in Qatar suspended production cuts. The logistics in the Middle East has partially recovered, but there is still a risk of capacity impact due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, but there is a risk of a callback in the long - position trading. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - to - medium term [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From March 12 to March 16, the spot premium changed by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 280, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 290, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 290, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE exchange inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 400, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 300 [2]. - Market Situation: The benchmark price for long - term contracts has increased, but the medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall inventory has accumulated above 250,000 tons. However, limited long - term capital investment and supply disturbances from Iran are expected to support the short - term zinc price [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From March 10 to March 16, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Jinchuan spot price decreased by 2650, the Russian nickel spot price decreased by 2700, the Jinchuan premium increased by 50, and the Russian nickel premium remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 744, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 1098 [5]. - Market Situation: The supply of pure nickel decreased in February. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the premiums are weak. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the LME inventory is slightly decreasing. With supply - side policy intervention and weak fundamentals, the nickel price is expected to trade in a range [5]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From March 10 to March 16, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 200 [9]. - Market Situation: The steel mill production has slightly decreased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The cost has increased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Affected by supply - side policies and weak fundamentals, it is expected to follow the nickel price and trade in a range [9]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From March 10 to March 16, the spot premium changed by - 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference increased by 25, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased by 25, the 1 recycled lead price difference decreased by 25, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory increased by 75, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 100 [12]. - Market Situation: The primary lead production is resuming, and the recycled lead production is expected to resume in mid - March. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated. The lead price is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [12]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From March 10 to March 16, the spot import profit decreased by 25632.99, the spot export profit increased by 23971.97, the tin position decreased by 2446, the LME C - 3M decreased by 47, the LME inventory decreased by 60, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 65 [15]. - Market Situation: This week, the tin price oscillated downward. The supply is expected to recover, but there are supply - side risks. The demand for restocking is strong after the price decline, and both domestic and overseas inventories have increased. The tin price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity [15]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From March 10 to March 16, the 421 Yunnan basis, 421 Sichuan basis, 553 East China basis, and 553 Tianjin basis remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - Market Situation: Large factories have resumed production, and the supply and demand are approaching a balanced state. The price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to cycle at the bottom due to over - capacity [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From March 10 to March 16, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 2500, the SMM industrial carbon price decreased by 2500, the basis of the main contract decreased by 2500, the basis of the near - month contract decreased by 2500, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 10 [22]. - Market Situation: In March, the supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory build - up in the off - season. The upward price space needs futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, and the downward breakthrough requires a collapse in demand or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [22].