大越期货豆粕早报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Soybean Meal (M2605): It is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060. Influenced by factors such as the decline of US soybeans, uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and short - term restrictions on imported soybeans due to the intensification of Middle East conflicts, it has entered a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger pattern. The current situation is neutral, with a positive basis, a decrease in inventory, a price above the 20 - day moving average, an increase in short positions of the main force, and inflow of funds [9]. - For Soybeans (A2605): It is expected to oscillate between 4860 and 4960. Affected by the decline of US soybeans and the increase in the expected reduction of imported soybeans due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, it maintains a high - level oscillation in the short term. The current situation is neutral, with a negative basis, a decrease in inventory on a week - on - week basis but an increase on a year - on - year basis, a price above the 20 - day moving average, an increase in short positions of the main force, and outflow of funds [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - No information provided in the content. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the weather of US soybeans are still uncertain. The US soybean market is in a short - term strong oscillation, awaiting further guidance on the South American soybean harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range oscillation in the short term [13]. - The reduction of domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal. The influence of US soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal have a cross - impact [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the South American soybean producing areas and the influence of the preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations. Soybean meal is in a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger pattern, awaiting further clarification of the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean yields, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Positive Factors: The preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean producing areas [14]. - Negative Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; the harvesting of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of the South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. - Soybeans - Positive Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [15]. - Negative Factors: Brazilian soybeans have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From March 6th to March 16th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3161 and 3420, and the trading volume fluctuated between 0 and 39.9 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2400 and 2620, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only a small amount of trading on March 9th and March 16th. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 761 and 900 [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data: From March 9th to March 16th, the prices of soybean futures (including bean 1 and bean 2), soybean meal futures (including the main contract and the far - month contract), and soybean and soybean meal spot prices all fluctuated [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From March 5th to March 16th, the number of bean 1, bean 2, and soybean meal warehouse receipts changed to varying degrees, with some increasing, some decreasing, and some remaining unchanged [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025, including data on harvested area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the United States (2024), Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), and Argentina (2024/25, 2025/26) at different times [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months: It shows the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the USDA monthly supply - demand reports from July 2025 to February 2026 [44]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the content.