大越期货甲醇早报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is expected to be dominated by short - term news factors due to the Middle East conflict situation. Inland methanol may decline if the Iran war ends soon; it is expected to run strongly if the war expands and escalates. The port methanol's upward trend is supported by inventory reduction, sentiment, and chemical resonance. The methanol market is expected to oscillate at a high level this week, and the price of MA2605 is expected to oscillate between 2720 - 2900 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are affected by the Middle East conflict. Inland, some traditional downstream users are cautious about purchasing high - priced raw materials, and upstream methanol enterprises have certain inventories. The port methanol is supported by factors such as inventory reduction and chemical resonance. The basis of the 05 contract shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. As of March 12, 2026, the social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports decreased significantly, and the tradable supply in coastal areas also decreased. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average line. The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate strongly this week [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some devices are shut down or operating at reduced loads, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin. The methanol production in Iran is at a low level, and the methanol imports in February are expected to continue to shrink. The methanol factories in the production areas have actively reduced inventory, and the current inventory is low, with some enterprises even restricting sales. Some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde are gradually shutting down for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials. The main olefin devices at the port are shut down, significantly weakening the local demand. Most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, resulting in a temporary weakening of demand [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained unchanged at 689 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main port in China increased from 381 to 386 US dollars/ton, and the import cost increased from 3216 to 3259 yuan/ton. The prices in different domestic regions showed different trends, with prices in Jiangsu, Fujian, and Inner Mongolia rising, while those in Hebei falling, and prices in Shandong remaining unchanged. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract increased from 2805 to 2837 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 196 to 11317 [8]. 3.3.2 Spread Structure - The basis decreased from 2 to 13 yuan/ton, the import spread increased from 411 to 422 yuan/ton, and the spreads between different regions also changed to varying degrees [8]. 3.3.3 Operating Rate - The weighted average operating rate nationwide decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased, while the operating rate in East China remained unchanged [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory - The inventory in East China ports decreased from 620,000 tons to 548,000 tons, and the inventory in South China ports decreased from 374,300 tons to 332,600 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. Different regions have different maintenance situations, with Northwest and East China having relatively more maintenance enterprises [57]. 3.4.2 Overseas Device Maintenance - Some overseas methanol production devices are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations. For example, some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting, and some American devices have low operating rates or are shut down unexpectedly [58]. 3.4.3 Olefin Device Maintenance - Some domestic olefin production devices are in a state of maintenance or have unstable operations. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices are shut down for maintenance, and some devices in Inner Mongolia and other regions have unstable operations [59].