集运指数日报-20260317

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: March 17, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price for April has been significantly raised, but the cargo volume remains light, and shipping companies may need to lower prices to attract cargo. The supply of shipping capacity in March and April is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Although the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, it is difficult to change the fundamental pattern of oversupply of shipping capacity on the European line. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the far - month sentiment and futures market, which may lead to a phased strengthening of the index, but it is also prone to significant corrections. It is recommended to short the off - season contract 04 when the spot and futures prices converge near the end of March, and go long on the peak - season contracts 07 and 08 at low prices [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The April spot price has been significantly raised. For example, the quotation range for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the second half of March is 2360 - 3230 US dollars per big container, with a median of about 2750 US dollars. The quoted prices for April from some shipping companies range from 3793 to 4855 US dollars, with a median of 4030 - 4040 US dollars. However, the cargo volume is still light, and it may be necessary to lower prices to attract cargo later [7]. - Fundamentals: After the Spring Festival, it is still the off - season for transportation. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters to rush for shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The shipping capacity supply in March and April is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the European line, the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down due to the escalating Middle East situation, which can continue to absorb the shipping capacity pressure, but it is difficult to change the oversupply situation of the European line [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the off - season contract 04 when the spot and futures prices converge near the end of March, and go long on the peak - season contracts 07 and 08 at low prices [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Comprehensive Index: Affected by the continuous geopolitical tension, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index continued to rise. On March 13, it was 1710.35 points, a 14.9% increase from the previous period [8]. - European Routes: Due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine, the European economy faces increased uncertainty. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1618 US dollars/TEU, a 11.4% increase from the previous period; the freight rate to Mediterranean basic ports was 2666 US dollars/TEU, a 13.0% increase from the previous period [8]. - North American Routes: The North American market has weak transportation demand and declining cargo volume, but the spot market booking price continues to rise. On March 13, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the basic ports of the US West and East were 2249 US dollars/FEU and 3111 US dollars/FEU respectively, with increases of 15.9% and 14.5% from the previous period [9]. - Persian Gulf Routes: Due to the continuous escalation of regional geopolitical tensions, some shipping companies are forced to take detour and transshipment strategies, resulting in a significant drop in cargo volume and large fluctuations in freight rates. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Persian Gulf basic ports was 3220 US dollars/TEU, a 40.8% increase from the previous period [9]. - Australia and New Zealand Routes: The market supply and demand are generally stable, but the growth momentum is insufficient. The average cabin utilization rate of Shanghai Port is about 95%, and the spot booking price has declined. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Australia and New Zealand basic ports was 624 US dollars/TEU, a 6.7% decrease from the previous period [9]. - South American Routes: The transportation supply - demand relationship is generally balanced. The cargo volume in the transportation market has declined, and the freight rate has decreased slightly after rising in the previous period. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to South American basic ports was 2559 US dollars/TEU, a 2.3% decrease from the previous period [9]. - Japanese Routes: The transportation demand is basically stable, and the market freight rate remains stable. On March 13, the freight rate index for the China - Japan route was 957.78 points [9]. - Geopolitical News: Trump said that Iran is willing to negotiate a cease - fire, but the current conditions are "not good enough", so the US will not reach a cease - fire agreement with Iran for the time being. Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to defend until Trump realizes it is an "unwinnable illegal war". Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out attacks on US and Israeli targets. The Strait of Hormuz is open to all except US and its allies' ships. The US plans to form a "convoy alliance" in the Strait of Hormuz, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he will continue to act against Iran [9]. - Fuel Surcharge News: Due to the sharp rise in fuel prices, CMA CGM will implement an emergency fuel surcharge (EFS) from March 16, 2026. Mediterranean Shipping has also announced emergency fuel surcharges for different routes and cargo types [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: On March 16, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1556.49 points, a 0.7% increase from March 9; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1109.11 points, a 1.1% decrease from March 9 [11]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market: The report provides data on the trading of container shipping futures contracts on March 16, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for each contract [6]. - Shipping - Related Data Charts: The report presents multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, the trend of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping futures on the European line, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and freight rates from Shanghai to European basic ports and Rotterdam [11][16][17][19]