大越期货贵金属早报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, due to the expected relief of transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the expectation of more countries releasing crude oil reserves, oil prices and the US dollar declined, leading to gold price fluctuations. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to 6 yuan/gram. With the escalation of the Middle East situation, high inflation concerns, and weak risk appetite, gold prices still face pressure [4]. - For silver, influenced by the same factors as gold, silver prices first declined and then rose. The premium of Shanghai silver converged to around 2,500 yuan/kg. High inflation concerns and reduced risk appetite still suppress silver prices [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 1.00% to $5,011.30 per ounce. The US dollar index dropped 0.69% to 99.80, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 5.28 basis points to 4.218%. The base difference shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and the inventory of gold futures remained unchanged at 105,420 kilograms. The main force's net long - position increased [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 0.42% to $81.00 per ounce. The base difference indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 4,142 kilograms to 330,708 kilograms. The main force's net long - position increased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today's key events include the RBA's interest rate decision, the RBA governor's press conference on monetary policy, the China - US economic and trade consultations, the release of the Eurozone's March ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US February pending home sales index [12]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 11:30: RBA to announce interest rate decision [12]. - 12:30: RBA Governor Bullock to hold a press conference on monetary policy [12]. - TBA: China - US economic and trade consultations from March 14 - 17 [12]. - All day: Saudi Arabia to start a multi - day market closure [12]. - 18:00: Release of the Eurozone's March ZEW economic sentiment index and Germany's March ZEW economic sentiment index [12]. - 22:00: Release of the US February pending home sales index [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The expected relief of transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the potential release of more crude oil reserves by multiple countries led to a decline in oil prices and the US dollar, causing gold price fluctuations. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded. High inflation concerns and weak risk appetite still put pressure on gold prices [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the expected relief of transportation disruptions and potential oil reserve releases led to silver price fluctuations. The premium of Shanghai silver converged. High inflation concerns and reduced risk appetite still suppress silver prices [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The net long - position of the main force increased. The number of long positions in the top 20 Shanghai gold positions decreased by 2.51% to 163,903 on March 16 compared to March 15, the number of short positions increased by 1.71% to 43,828, and the net position decreased by 3.96% to 120,075 [4][38]. - Silver: The net long - position of the main force increased. The number of long positions in the top 20 Shanghai silver positions decreased by 1.23% to 251,492 on March 16 compared to March 13, the number of short positions decreased by 1.85% to 247,313, and the net position increased by 57.64% to 4,179 [5][41]. 3.6. Other Data - Gold: The spread structure of Shanghai gold shows certain price differences between different contracts. The internal - external spread of gold fluctuates greatly but is relatively stable overall [20][26]. - Silver: The spread structure of Shanghai silver shows price differences between different contracts. The internal - external spread of silver fluctuates extremely and is still at a historical extreme, with the final spread value in the past 3 years being 465 yuan/kg [20][26]. - ETF Holdings: The ETF holdings of gold decreased slightly, and the ETF holdings of silver continued to decrease [43][45]. - Warehouse Receipts: COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past 6 years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease significantly [47][49].