大越期货菜粕早报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2440 - 2500. Influenced by the trend of soybean meal and technical consolidation, the short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports has been digested, while the escalation of the Middle East conflict provides short - term positive support. Although the spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, the low inventory supports the market. With good post - Spring Festival demand expectations, the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, maintaining an oscillatory pattern after the digestion of overall negative factors [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in the 2440 - 2500 range. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, and geopolitical factors. Spot demand is in the off - season, but low inventory and post - Spring Festival demand expectations support the market [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the seasonal off - season, with short - term tight supply and low demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed exports to China have returned to normal, and import volumes are gradually increasing. The relationship between China and Canada has improved, and tariffs are being gradually removed. Global rapeseed production is increasing, especially in Canada. The Ukraine - Russia conflict continues, and the Middle East situation is tense, which may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: Good post - Spring Festival demand expectations for Chinese rapeseed meal and no pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: Short - term off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports due to improved China - Canada trade relations [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Transaction data: The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates. For example, on March 6, the average price difference was 761, and on March 16, it was 880 [13]. - Price data: Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices show certain trends. For instance, on March 9, the futures price of the main 2605 contract was 2433, and the spot price in Fujian was 2400 [15]. - Warehouse receipt data: The number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts changes over time. For example, on March 10, it increased by 900 to 2311, and on March 16, it decreased by 50 to 2261 [17]. - Supply - demand balance data: The supply - demand balance of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal has different situations in different years. For example, in 2025, the ending inventory of domestic rapeseed was 1414.9, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 10.56; the ending inventory of domestic rapeseed meal was 975.8, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 9.85 [19][21]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position of rapeseed meal has changed from long to short, and funds have flowed in, showing a bearish signal [9].