大越期货沥青期货早报-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production schedule was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 24.5686%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 176,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.67%. The output of sample enterprises was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.108 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.82%. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of construction asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of modified asphalt was 0.7302%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt was 9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [10]. - Cost side: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 539.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 308.9886 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 83.40%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [10]. - Comprehensive judgment: The refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory continues to be depleted. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support has strengthened in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. For asphalt 2606, the market fluctuates greatly, and cautious operation is recommended [10]. - Factors affecting the market: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. Bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall declining demand, and the strengthening expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In March 2026, domestic asphalt production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. This week, refineries reduced production, and supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand: The operating rates of various types of asphalt and related products are generally lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [10]. - Cost: The processing profit of asphalt is negative, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil strengthening supports the market in the short term [10]. - Market judgment: It is expected that the asphalt 2606 market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: The prices of various contracts have different degrees of increase, and the price increase ranges from 2.26% to 9.17% [16]. - Basis: On March 16, the spot price in Shandong was 4,060 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 404 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 2.61% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 5.88% month - on - month [10][18]. - Other data: The registered warehouse receipts increased by 45.65% month - on - month, and the price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong increased by 2.27% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [20][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spread: The report shows the spread trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2023, which is useful for spread trading analysis [25][26]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: It presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28][29]. - Crude oil cracking spread: It shows the cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of refining [31][32][33]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: It presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the relative value of different products [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the regional price differences and trends of asphalt [38][39]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [40][41]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: It presents the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the profit differences between different production processes [43][44][45]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: It shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the supply situation [47][48]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It presents the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the inventory situation [50][51]. - Production: It shows the weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the production capacity and trends [53][54]. - Marrow crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: It presents the price of Marrow crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2026, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [57][59]. - Local refinery asphalt production: It shows the local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the production contribution of local refineries [60][61]. - Operating rate: It shows the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026, which helps to understand the production activity [63][64]. - Maintenance loss volume estimate: It presents the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the impact of maintenance on production [66][67]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [69][70]. - Social inventory and factory inventory: It presents the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation [73][74]. - Factory inventory inventory ratio: It shows the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of factories [77][78]. - Import and export situation: - Asphalt export and import trends: It presents the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [80][81]. - South Korean asphalt import spread trend: It shows the import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the cost advantage of imported asphalt [84][85]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2026, which is related to the demand for asphalt as a by - product [86][87]. - Apparent consumption: It presents the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the overall demand situation [89][90]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment: It shows the highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in road construction [92][93]. - New local special bonds: It presents the new local special bonds from 2019 to 2026, which may affect the investment in infrastructure construction and the demand for asphalt [94]. - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: It shows the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024, which is related to the demand for asphalt [94]. - Downstream machinery demand: It presents the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026, which is related to the construction activity and the demand for asphalt [96][98]. - Asphalt operating rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate: It shows the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 and the average level in 2026, which helps to understand the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [101][102]. - Asphalt operating rate by use: It presents the operating rates of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 to 2025 and the average level in 2026, which helps to understand the production activity of different types of asphalt [104]. - Downstream operating situation: It shows the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in different downstream industries [106][107][108]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand situation of asphalt [111][112].