大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of lithium carbonate showed an increase last week, with a production of 23,426 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The demand side also had inventory increases in related sample enterprises. The cost side had different profit and loss situations for different raw materials. The overall situation was a tight supply - demand balance with emotional fluctuations caused by news [8]. - The expected production and import of lithium carbonate in the next month are expected to increase, and the demand is expected to strengthen, with inventory likely to be reduced. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the range of 154,100 - 165,220 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Supply increased last week, demand - side inventories rose, and different raw materials had different cost - profit situations. The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price was 156,500 yuan/ton on March 16, and the 05 - contract basis was - 3,120 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The overall fundamentals were bullish [8]. - Basis: The basis was bearish as the spot was at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased by 0.41% week - on - week, lower than the historical average, which was bullish [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the 05 - contract futures price closed above the MA20, which was bullish [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, which was bearish [8]. - Expectation: In February 2026, the production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month was 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month was 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the range of 154,100 - 165,220 [8]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price and Basis: Futures closing prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase, and the basis of most contracts decreased significantly. The registered warehouse receipts decreased slightly by 0.03% [14]. - Upstream Prices: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and some lithium - related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of lithium spodumene decreased by 2.26%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.57% [14]. - Supply - Demand Data: On the supply side, the weekly operating rate remained unchanged, and the production cost and profit of different raw materials had different changes. On the demand side, the monthly operating rate and production of some products decreased, and the inventory of some products increased [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore (6% CIF) showed a downward trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China had different trends in different years [24]. - Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed fluctuations, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed over time [24]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [27][28]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) and the total operating rate showed different trends. The monthly production of lithium carbonate by different grades and raw materials also changed over time [31]. - Import and Recycling: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries and the recycling volume of waste lithium batteries showed different trends [31][34]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in different months, with some months in surplus and some in short supply [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly operating rate and production from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends [40]. - Export: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years [40]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different months, with some months in surplus and some in short supply [42]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) showed different trends over time [45][48]. - Processing Cost and Profit: The processing cost and profit of lithium compounds (such as lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide processing) also showed different trends [45][48]. 3.7 Inventory - Carbonate Lithium Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) showed different trends [53]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) also showed different trends [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - Price and Production: The price of power batteries showed different trends, and the monthly production of power battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate) also changed over time [57]. - Loading and Shipment: The monthly loading volume and shipment volume of power batteries showed different trends [57]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends in different years [57]. 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - Inventory and Tender: The inventory of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy - storage battery) and the tender situation of energy - storage systems showed different trends [59]. - Operating Rate and Production: The operating rate and production of the energy - storage battery industry showed different trends [59]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary precursors showed different trends, and the cost and profit of ternary precursors also changed over time [62]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: The capacity utilization rate and monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends [62]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different months, with some months in surplus and some in short supply [65]. 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary materials showed different trends, and the cost and profit of ternary materials also changed over time [68]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate and monthly production of ternary materials showed different trends [68]. - Export and Import: The export and import volume of ternary materials showed different trends in different years [70]. 3.12 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium showed different trends, and the cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium also changed over time [72]. - Capacity and Production: The capacity and monthly production of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [72][75]. - Export and Inventory: The export volume and weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [75][77]. 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [80]. - Penetration Rate and Inventory Index: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers also showed different trends [81][84].