锌期货日报-20260317

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 17, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Affected by the Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices, market concerns about inflation rebound have increased. Coupled with geopolitical risk - aversion demand, the US dollar index has strengthened continuously. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in this week's meeting is as high as 99.2%, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts this year has been significantly revised down, further consolidating the strong position of the US dollar. Base metals have all declined under pressure. The zinc price is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures Market Quotes: For different contracts of Shanghai zinc futures, the 2603 contract opened at 24,140 yuan/ton, closed at 24,230 yuan/ton, with a decline of 95 yuan and a decline rate of 0.39%, and the position decreased by 85; the 2604 contract opened at 24,245 yuan/ton, closed at 24,300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 120 yuan and a decline rate of 0.49%, and the position decreased by 1,494; the 2605 contract opened at 24,230 yuan/ton, closed at 24,340 yuan/ton, with a decline of 130 yuan and a decline rate of 0.53%, and the position increased by 623 [7]. - Market Situation: The main contract of Shanghai zinc fell below the 24,000 - yuan mark, closing at 23,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 315 yuan or 1.30%. On the 16th, LME inventory decreased by 400 tons to 90,800 tons, 0 - 3C was 42.63, and the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 7.27. The average domestic TC price of SMM Zn50 this week remained flat at 1,550 yuan/metal ton. Although the offers of imported ore increased, due to overseas supply disruptions, the imported zinc concentrate index continued to decline to 11.25 US dollars/ton. With the resumption of refineries and the increase in natural days, the refined zinc output in March will increase month - on - month. On Monday, the SMM zinc ingot inventory continued to accumulate, increasing by 0.7 tons to 27.58 tons compared with last Friday. As the price dropped, downstream buyers increased their spot purchases at low prices. The social inventory may decline slightly this week, but the inflection point of inventory decline has not been confirmed [7]. 2. Industry News - 0 Zinc Transactions on March 16, 2026: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 23,755 - 24,040 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 23,685 - 23,970 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the SMM average price and no offer to the futures price [8]. - Ningbo Market: The mainstream price of 0 zinc was around 23,775 - 24,030 yuan/ton. Regular brands in Ningbo offered a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The mainstream in Ningbo was to quote against the 2604 contract [8]. - Tianjin Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 23,760 - 24,080 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded between 23,800 - 24,090 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingots were traded around 23,720 - 24,010 yuan/ton. Zijin offered a discount of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and Huxin was quoted at 24,600 yuan/ton [8]. - Guangdong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 23,775 - 24,060 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands offered a discount of 80 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. At first, holders offered a discount of 70 - 60 yuan/ton for brands such as Qilin and Lanxin [8]. 3. Data Overview - Graphs: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE month - to - month spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory [10][12]