瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port decreased slightly, with the bonded warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory and the general trade warehouse reducing inventory. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease slightly in the short term [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, and the production schedules of each tire enterprise have basically returned to the normal level, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire enterprises in some regions is still facing resistance due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, and there is a possibility of a slight decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 133,055 lots, a decrease of 1,814 lots; the trading volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 61,564 lots, a decrease of 2,826 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 45,830 lots, an increase of 453 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,457 lots, an increase of 481 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 123,980 tons, an increase of 3,180 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 48,787 tons, a decrease of 504 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market was 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,020 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,015 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 was 16,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 was 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 104 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 74.1 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.53 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 69.55 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.7 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 72.3 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, an increase of 94,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 70.22%, an increase of 4.32 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.71%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 43.91 days, a decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 43.84 days, an increase of 0.74 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.08%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.15%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 32.07%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 32.06%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 units, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a decrease of about 8% compared with the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2]. - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port (bonded and general trade) was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The inventory in the bonded area was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the inventory in general trade was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81% [2]. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2].