白糖产业日报-20260317

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazilian sugar exports in the first two weeks of March 2026 were 724,280 tons, with a daily average of 72,400 tons, a 25% decrease compared to the daily average of the whole month of March last year. The total export volume in March last year was 1.8344 million tons [2]. - In the domestic market, as of now, 8 sugar mills in Guangxi have shut down in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 50 less than the same period last year, and the first peak of shutdowns may occur this week. The spot price has strong support at the bottom, and the price center continues to rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,406 yuan/ton, and the main contract position was 416,937 lots, a decrease of 1,263 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16,342, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 130,298 lots [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,053 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 3,981 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,134 yuan/ton, and the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,040 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, and the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The total export volume of Brazilian sugar was 2.2297 million tons, and the import volume of sugar in the current month was 580,000 tons, an increase of 140,000 tons; the cumulative import volume was 492,000 tons [2]. - The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 155,060 tons, an increase of 66,580 tons; the cumulative sales volume in Yunnan was 53,200 tons [2]. - The cumulative output of cane sugar in Guangxi was 402,900 tons, an increase of 208,710 tons; the cumulative output in Yunnan was 98,410 tons, an increase of 59,180 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 228,740 tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.3421 million tons, an increase of 296,400 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 15.21%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.22%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.15%, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 9.77%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Brazilian foreign trade data shows that the daily average sugar export volume in the first two weeks of March 2026 decreased by 25% compared to March last year [2]. - The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.19 cents or 1.30% on Monday, and the settlement price was 14.19 cents per pound [2].