铂钯金期货日报-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The platinum market is expected to face a shortage for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, with a narrowing gap compared to 2025, but the long - term tight situation remains unchanged. Analysts believe the long - term fundamentals of platinum (diversified demand) are stronger than those of palladium (highly dependent on fuel - vehicle catalysts), and the premium of platinum over palladium is expected to further expand. Platinum's demand has solid medium - term support, while palladium's fundamentals are more fragile. The market volatility may remain high, and platinum and palladium are likely to follow the fluctuations of gold and silver. It is recommended to adopt a trading strategy based on the concept of market oscillations [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 552.70 yuan/gram, up 22.65 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 407.75 yuan/gram, up 9.15 yuan. The platinum main - contract position was 10,387 lots, down 277 lots; the palladium main - contract position was 3,179 lots, up 90 lots [2]. - Spot Market: The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 548.93 yuan/gram, up 20.28 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot average price was 388.00 yuan/gram, up 19.00 yuan. The platinum main - contract basis was - 3.77 yuan/gram, down 2.37 yuan; the palladium main - contract basis was - 19.75 yuan/gram, up 9.85 yuan [2]. - Supply and Demand: The platinum CFTC non - commercial long position was 9,966 contracts, down 243 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long position was 3,003 contracts, down 342 contracts. The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. - Macro Data: The US dollar index was 99.81, down 0.69; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.87%, down 0.05%. The VIX volatility index was 23.51, down 3.68 [2]. 2. Industry News - US President Trump said that after attacking military targets on Iran's major oil - export hub, Kharg Island, attacking the island's oil infrastructure was still an option. He hoped that European countries, Japan, and South Korea would assist in ensuring the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but German Chancellor Merz refused to participate in the escort. - Trump called on the Federal Reserve to hold a "special meeting" to cut interest rates and criticized Fed Chairman Powell, saying that rates should be cut "immediately." The US Department of Justice requested a federal judge to reconsider the decision to revoke the subpoena for Fed Chairman Powell. - According to the latest "Platinum Quarterly" released by WPIC in early March, the global platinum market is expected to face a shortage for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, with a gap of about 7 tons (about 240,000 ounces), narrowing from the extreme gap of 34 tons in 2025. - Bank of America significantly raised its average target price for platinum in 2026 from $1,825 to $2,450 and the palladium target price from $1,525 to $1,725. Analysts believe that the long - term fundamentals of platinum are stronger than those of palladium [2]. 3. Key Events to Watch - March 17, 22:00: US Conference Board Leading Index for February - March 18, 18:00: Eurozone CPI monthly and annual rates for February - March 18, 20:30: US PPI monthly and annual rates for February - March 18, 22:00: US factory orders monthly rate for February - March 19, 02:00: Federal Reserve March interest - rate meeting - March 19, 20:30: US initial jobless claims [2]