鲁、豫生猪饲料市场调研报告

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig industry is in a bottom - oscillating adjustment period, with the overall trend of "short - term stabilization and decline, medium - term slight recovery, and further pressure release in the second half of the year". Industry reshuffle is accelerating, and cost control and model innovation are the keys for enterprises to break through [16]. - The long - term industry losses will lead to a reshuffle, and enterprises with sufficient funds and good cost - control capabilities will stand out. The pig price is expected to struggle at the bottom for a long time, and it is recommended to mainly use reverse hedging operations in the futures market, and long - term allocation can focus on high - quality breeding stocks [20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Research Summary 3.1.1. Feed Link - Some feed enterprises face the pressure of declining sales. The core reasons are the recurrence of diseases in Shandong from mid - October to early November last year, which led to an early increase in pig slaughter volume, reducing feed demand. Coupled with the low pig price and rising feed price, the breeding end is cautious about restocking, further suppressing feed consumption. Enterprises expect feed sales to gradually recover after April [5]. - In terms of raw material procurement, affected by the mildew of North China corn, enterprises mainly purchase corn from the Northeast, with a transportation cost of 200 - 300 yuan/ton. To reduce the impact of toxins, enterprises implement refined proportioning. Piglet feed uses all Northeast corn, and medium and large pig feed uses a combination of Northeast and local corn. The overall inventory is relatively sufficient, and the current enthusiasm for restocking is limited [5]. - Affected by the increase in raw material prices after the Spring Festival, the feed price has been raised synchronously. The sales volume in March is expected to decline by 30% year - on - year, which is in line with the historical trend after the Spring Festival. However, the sales volume of teaching and protection feed is expected to improve slightly month - on - month, indicating that the inventory of piglets in the market is still at a high level [5]. - For raw material price prediction, enterprises believe that soybean meal is supported by the cost of US soybeans and international freight in the short term and has increased in price, but the overall supply is loose, so they do not blindly expect a high price. Corn still has room for price increase, and the subsequent price is expected to reach 2600 - 2700 yuan/ton [5]. 3.1.2. Breeding Link - The breeding end is currently facing multiple pressures such as low pig prices, increased costs, and high inventory. The enthusiasm for restocking is differentiated, and enterprises of different scales show different business situations. Although the industry is generally in a loss state, the adjustment of production capacity is very cautious [7]. - In terms of production capacity, the current industry production capacity is still at a high level. Although the data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows that the number of fertile sows in the country has decreased to 39.6 million, the absolute value is still high. The impact of losses and diseases at the end of last year on production capacity is relatively limited. Breeding enterprises have no obvious intention to actively reduce production capacity, only those with financial difficulties reduce production capacity passively. The reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises is mostly for capacity transfer, and the actual slaughter volume of sows has not increased significantly, and the price of culled sows is stable [7]. - In terms of restocking, the current enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high. Affected by factors such as low pig prices, rising feed costs, and the inversion of standard and fat pig prices, secondary fattening households mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Most stocking enterprises' pens are empty. It is expected that the enthusiasm for purchasing 15kg piglets is higher than that for 7kg piglets. Enterprises are optimistic about the price before the Zhongyuan Festival and believe that the decline space of piglet prices is limited because the restocking demand in Shandong from March to May is relatively high. In Henan, there is a situation of "high piglet prices and cautious restocking", and only a small number of secondary fattening households buy at the bottom [9]. - In terms of cost and profit, there are differences among enterprises. The current fattening cost of individual farmers in Shandong is about 5.5 yuan/jin, the fattening cycle is 5 - 5.5 months, and the daily weight gain is 1.6 jin. The daily weight gain of secondary fattening is about 2 jin. The slaughter cost of stocking enterprises is about 5.6 yuan/jin (excluding disease losses), and the cost after disease losses exceeds 6 yuan/jin. The current pig price is about 5 yuan/jin, and the industry is in a loss state. In addition, slaughterhouses have increased the deduction for large pigs, and the supply of pigs in the 125 - 150KG weight range is sufficient, and the price decline is greater than that in the 105 - 125KG range. Breeding enterprises have difficulties in selling and are forced to reduce prices, and the pressure of slaughtering large pigs is relatively large. Group enterprises are still further reducing costs and will further lower the target cost in 2026, achieving cost - control advantages through integrated layout [10]. - In terms of diseases and hedging, there are still sporadic epidemics, which increase the breeding cost and risk. The current full - industry loss state and the investment in disease prevention and control costs undoubtedly increase the burden on enterprises. If there is a high - incidence period of epidemics in the future, it may increase the risk of concentrated outbreaks of diseases at the breeding end. In terms of hedging, enterprises in Shandong and Henan have a high enthusiasm for hedging, and the model is mature. They are more enthusiastic about hedging in the piglet fattening link. The large - scale participation of the breeding end industry also has a profound impact on the futures market trend [13]. 3.1.3. Slaughter and Trade Link - In the slaughter link, it is currently facing problems such as weak demand, seasonal decline in sales volume, and financial pressure. Although the pig price is at a low level, the current enthusiasm for segmentation and warehousing is not high. However, some more radical enterprises believe that the risk of making frozen products at a pig price of about 5 yuan/jin is low and are gradually segmenting and warehousing. The weak performance of the consumer end is the core problem faced by slaughter enterprises. The current low pork price has an insignificant effect on stimulating consumption, and the willingness of terminal consumers to switch from beef and poultry to pork is not strong, which is in line with the situation where the decline in poultry prices affects the demand for pig products. At the same time, the industry has over - capacity and a long payment period, which further increases the pressure on slaughter enterprises. Therefore, the current overall warehousing rhythm is still relatively slow [14]. - In the trade link, single transportation businesses have mostly transformed due to financial pressure, and enterprises mostly adopt the "transportation + stocking" model. Slaughterhouses generally have a long payment period, and traders face prominent financial pressure. Large pigs in Shandong mainly flow to Anhui and Zhejiang, but affected by the sufficient supply of large pigs in the South, the number of large pigs transported from the North to the South has decreased, which is consistent with the current situation of the structural mismatch between the supply and demand of pigs in the North and the South. Although there is a gap in the main sales areas in the South, the current supply is sufficient, resulting in a decline in cross - regional transportation volume [15]. 3.1.4. Market Outlook - The current pig industry is in a bottom - oscillating adjustment period. Although there are differences in market predictions among all parties, the overall trend is "short - term stabilization and decline, medium - term slight recovery, and further pressure release in the second half of the year". At the same time, the industry reshuffle is accelerating, and cost control and model innovation are the keys for enterprises to break through [16]. - In terms of market prediction, most enterprises believe that March - April is the low - price range of pig prices in the first half of the year, and the probability of the price being lower than this level in the future is small and the duration is short. From May to June, the price is expected to rise with the decrease in supply. It is difficult to judge the annual high point, and it is expected that reaching 7 yuan/jin is already good. Regarding the market in the second half of the year, there are different views in the market. Some believe that it is expected to recover, but some enterprises believe that there is no substantial reduction in production capacity at present. Although the industry is in a loss state, the time and space of the loss are limited, the breeding end has sufficient funds, and it is difficult to reduce production capacity, so the expectations for the second half of the year have been lowered [16]. 3.2. Research Minutes 3.2.1. Shandong Enterprise A - The enterprise mainly engages in pig feed (with a small amount of ruminant feed). The designed production capacity of pig feed is 180,000 tons, and the current output is about 60,000 tons. It has 20,000 fattening pens, and the scale of the cooperative fattening pig enterprise reaches 100,000 heads. In terms of feed sales, the pig feed sales volume in February was about 3,000 tons, a significant halving month - on - month, and the sales volume from December to February continued to decline month - on - month. It is expected to start to recover in April, mainly because the recurrence of diseases in Shandong from mid - October to early November last year led to an increase in pig slaughter volume, resulting in an early decline in pig feed sales [21]. - In terms of restocking, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening in Linyi is not high. Affected by low pig prices, rising feed costs, and the inversion of standard and fat pig prices, secondary fattening households mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. The enterprise's 20,000 pens and most of its cooperative customers' pens are currently empty. It plans to purchase 15kg piglets recently and slaughter them before the Zhongyuan Festival on August 27 (with a slaughter weight of 270 - 280 jin). It is optimistic about the price before the festival and believes that the decline space of piglet prices is limited because the restocking demand in Shandong from March to May is relatively high [21]. - In terms of fattening cost, the enterprise indicates that the current cost from purchasing 15kg piglets (450 yuan/head) to slaughter is about 6 yuan/jin, and the fattening cost of individual farmers is about 5.5 yuan/jin. The fattening cycle is 5 - 5.5 months, and the daily weight gain is 1.6 jin. The daily weight gain of secondary fattening is about 2 jin [21]. - In terms of circulation, large pigs in Shandong mainly flow to Anhui and Zhejiang. Affected by the sufficient supply of large pigs in the South, the number of large pigs transported from the North to the South has decreased [22]. - In terms of hedging, it is recommended to use over - the - counter options for hedging, which can be combined with on - exchange hedging to reduce risks. Enterprises in Shandong have a high enthusiasm for hedging [22]. - In terms of feed raw materials, the enterprise's corn inventory is maintained for more than one month, with daily rotation in and out. Affected by the mildew of North China corn, it mainly purchases corn from the Northeast, with a transportation cost of 200 - 300 yuan/ton. It proportions corn for different pig feed stages to reduce toxins. Piglet feed uses all Northeast corn, and medium and large pig feed uses a combination of Northeast and local corn. The enterprise is optimistic about the domestic corn price and expects it to reach 2600 - 2700 yuan/ton [22]. - In the future, the enterprise will focus on promoting piglet procurement, hedging operations, and raw material procurement, strengthen market monitoring, and pay attention to the trends of pig prices and raw material prices. In terms of the market, the short - term pig price is expected to improve in April, stabilize in May, improve in June, and may decline in July, and the long - term upward space is limited [22]. 3.2.2. Shandong Enterprise B - The enterprise mainly engages in the sales of segmented products. The current daily slaughter volume is more than 5,000 heads, half of the peak of more than 10,000 heads before the Spring Festival. The average weight of purchased pigs is 100 - 110 kg, the same as the same period. The pig sources mainly come from local Shandong and northern Jiangsu. In terms of pig prices, the enterprise believes that March - April may be the low price of the year, and the probability of the price being lower than this level in the future is small and the duration is short. It is relatively optimistic about the pig price in the second half of the year. The short - term average price in March is 5.2 - 5.4 yuan/jin, slightly rising to about 5.6 yuan/jin in April. The supply is expected to decrease from May to June, and the price is expected to rise. It is difficult to judge the annual high point, and it is expected that reaching 7 yuan/jin is already good [23]. - In terms of enterprise operation, the fresh - sales rate is about 50%, down from 70 - 80% before the Spring Festival. Warehousing is mainly order - based, with 25% being customer orders and 25% being active + passive warehousing. In terms of product cost, the price of No. 4 meat is 15,500 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the price of No. 2 meat is 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton. In the frozen - product storage cost, the daily rent per ton of goods is 1 yuan (30 yuan/ton per month). Coupled with handling and transfer fees, the monthly fixed cost is about 100 yuan/ton. The enterprise's designed frozen - product storage capacity is about 10,000 tons, and the current inventory is 3,000 - 4,000 tons (including customer orders and the amount of active segmentation and warehousing). It believes that the risk of making frozen products at a pig price of about 5 yuan/jin is low and is gradually segmenting and warehousing, planning to complete the target volume in about three months. At the same time, the enterprise pays attention to production refinement and channel construction, and some enterprises avoid payment - period risks [23]. - In terms of supply and demand, the decline in poultry prices affects the demand for pig products. The prices of frozen and fresh meat are close, and the discount situations are different for different uses. The industry has over - capacity, and there are differences in the management and production capacity of slaughterhouses in the North and the South. Some southern enterprises rely on contract slaughtering. The enterprise improves its competitiveness by optimizing production and sales and cooperating to stabilize customers [24]. - In terms of inventory, deep - processing enterprises increase inventory moderately as needed. In terms of funds, supply - chain finance provides support, and the enterprise uses funds carefully. Looking forward to the future, the short - term price will rise slowly, and the medium - term demand is expected to increase. The enterprise will optimize inventory, expand channels, and strictly control costs [25]. 3.2.3. Shandong Enterprise C - The enterprise is a large - scale pig trading enterprise in the local area, with business covering the whole country. The average daily trading volume is about 50 trucks, reaching 120 trucks at the peak before the Spring Festival. Each truck is 15 - 18 tons, and the weight of each truck of large - weight pigs exceeds 16 tons. The purchased pig sources are mainly from provinces in the Northwest and the South with low prices and price - difference advantages [26]. - Currently, the stocking volume in the Shandong region is large, and the local fattening supply is sufficient. The enterprise's own stocking volume is about 30,000 heads, which is relatively small among large - scale stocking enterprises in the local area. Shandong stocking enterprises had a long - term profit in the early stage and increased the volume rapidly last year. They have been in a loss state since September last year. The agency - raising fee is 200 - 240 yuan/head. Because the average weight per head is lower than that in the South, the agency - raising fee is lower than that in the South [26]. - At the breeding end, the slaughter cost of stocking enterprises is about 5.6 yuan/jin (excluding disease losses), and the cost after disease losses exceeds 6 yuan/jin. The current pig price is about 5 yuan/jin, and the industry is in a loss state. Shandong slaughterhouses have increased the deduction for large pigs, 80 - 100 yuan per head. The supply of pigs in the 125 - 150KG weight range is sufficient, and the price decline is greater than that in the 105 - 125KG range. Breeding enterprises have difficulties in selling and are forced to reduce prices [26]. - At the industry level, single transportation businesses have mostly transformed due to financial pressure, and enterprises mostly adopt the "transportation + stocking" model. Slaughterhouses generally have a long payment period, and traders face prominent financial pressure [26]. - The process of taking delivery in the futures market is cumbersome. In the North, 72 - hour disinfection is required in advance for delivery, and the intangible cost is high. Slaughterhouses have a low participation rate and are prone to losses [26]. - All parties believe that the current bottom - oscillating of pig prices has just started and is expected to last for about three months. Enterprises need to have sufficient funds and good cost - control capabilities to survive the difficult period [27]. 3.2.4. Henan Enterprise A - The