农产品早报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of corn is driven by the concentrated release of replenishment demand at the consumption end due to the tight supply in the front - end trade link. In the long - term, attention should be paid to import and domestic storage auction policies [2]. - The price of starch will remain strong in the short - term due to limited raw material supply. In the long - term, the downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3]. - The international sugar market's fundamentals have marginally strengthened, and the domestic market is oscillating strongly. There is hedging pressure above the futures price [6]. - Cotton demand is expected to continue to improve, and it is suitable for long - term long positions [8]. - For eggs, the supply pressure is postponed due to farmers' active delayed culling, and the 05 and 06 contracts are recommended to be treated in a reverse spread pattern [12]. - The apple market shows a pattern of strong in the west and stable in the east. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi has risen slightly, while the Shandong area is stable [15]. - The short - term supply of live pigs is still loose, with limited capacity reduction and pressure in the medium - term. Futures are at a premium, and attention should be paid to the expected difference [15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the price of corn in Changchun remained at 2230, while the price in other regions had some fluctuations. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang also changed slightly. The basis and processing profit of corn and starch also had corresponding changes [2]. - Analysis: In the short - term, the corn price is driven by supply - demand mismatch. In the long - term, import and storage auction policies are important. The starch price will be strong in the short - term due to raw material supply constraints, and downstream consumption is crucial in the long - term [2][3]. Sugar - Price Data: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming changed. The basis, import profit, and the number of warehouse receipts also had corresponding changes [6]. - Analysis: The international sugar market's fundamentals have strengthened, and the domestic market is affected by import policy discussions and hedging pressure [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton, import M - grade US cotton, and other related data such as import profit, warehouse receipts + forecasts, and yarn prices changed [16]. - Analysis: Cotton demand is expected to improve due to factors such as expanding textile production, good downstream profits, and consumption - promotion policies. It is suitable for long - term long positions [8]. Eggs - Price Data: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the egg prices in different producing areas remained relatively stable, and the basis and prices of substitute products also had some changes [12]. - Analysis: The slowdown of chicken culling means the supply pressure is postponed. Due to the high premium of 05 and 06 contracts, a reverse spread pattern is recommended [12]. Apples - Price Data: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900, and the basis of different contracts changed. The national apple inventory decreased [14][15]. - Analysis: The apple market shows a pattern of strong in the west and stable in the east. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi has risen, and the sales in the consumer market are slow [15]. Live Pigs - Price Data: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the live pig prices in different producing areas had some fluctuations, and the basis also changed [15]. - Analysis: The short - term supply is loose, with limited capacity reduction. Futures are at a premium, and attention should be paid to the expected difference [15].