建信期货棉花日报-20260318

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: March 18, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a volatile adjustment. For example, CF2605 opened at 15440, closed at 15415, with a decline of 0.16%. CF2609 opened at 15525, closed at 15490, down 0.23%. CF2701 opened at 15845, closed at 1580, down 0.41% [7] - The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 16821 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the spot market, 2025/26 South Xinjiang Kashi machine - picked grade 31 double 29/impurity within 3 had many quotes at CF05 + 1100 and above, and the same - quality fixed - price quotes were mostly above 16600. In North Xinjiang, the higher quotes were above 1400, and the mainstream negotiable range was 1300 - 1400, with the same - quality quotes mostly above 16800 [7] Market Situation - The overall trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was steadily improving, with individual manufacturers slightly raising their quotes, and the overall quotes were rising steadily. Spinning mills' orders were being delivered in an orderly manner, and the overall spot inventory was low. The overall situation in the all - cotton grey fabric market was stable. Weaving mills still had ongoing in - machine orders, but the recovery of export orders was still below expectations, and the grey fabric prices were stable [8] - As of the week ending March 12, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0482 million tons, accounting for 100.6% of the estimated U.S. cotton production for the 2025/26 season, a year - on - year decrease of 4% (the estimated U.S. cotton production for the 2025/26 season was 3.03 million tons). The external market trend strengthened. After the release of 300,000 tons of sliding - scale duty processing trade quotas in the domestic market, the high gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices converged. Previously, the strong trend of Zhengzhou cotton had increased cotton farmers' enthusiasm for preparing for spring plowing and sowing. Attention should be paid to the realization of the expected reduction in cotton - planting area during the spring plowing season. The inventory of downstream finished products decreased, and the operating rate increased significantly. There was still support on the demand side during the current peak season. In the short term, the external market strengthened, and Zhengzhou cotton was in a volatile adjustment. Attention should be paid to the results of the China - U.S. talks [8] Group 3: Industry News - Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) recently announced that the estimated cotton - planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 2.0136 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5% compared to 2.0856 million hectares in the 2024/25 season. The estimated cotton yield per hectare in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 1885 kg, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% compared to 1954 kg in the 2024/25 season. The estimated cotton production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 3.7951 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9% compared to 4.0761 million tons in the 2024/25 season [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, various spread data (CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1, CF1 - 5), cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rate data (USD/CNY, USD/INR) [16][17][18][20][27][29]