建信期货集运指数日报-20260318

1. Report Information - Report Name: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: March 18, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot prices for April have been significantly raised, but cargo volume remains light. The supply-demand fundamentals show that it's still the off - season after the Spring Festival, with high运力 supply in March and April. The Red Sea re - navigation plan is slowed by the Middle - East situation, which can relieve some运力 pressure but can't change the oversupply situation. Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term strengthening of the index but also lead to sharp corrections. Consider shorting the 04 off - season contract when the spot and futures converge in late March, and going long on the 07 and 08 peak - season contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: April quotes have been greatly increased. For example, the Shanghai - Rotterdam route's March second - half quotes are between $2360 - 3230 per big container, with a median of about $2750. Airlines like CMA CGM, HPL, and ONE have offered April quotes in the range of $3793 - 4855, with a median of $4030 - 4040. However, cargo volume is still light, and the Middle - East route has high quotes but low transactions [7]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: It's the off - season after the Spring Festival. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters' rush to ship, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The运力 supply in March and April is at a high level. Although the Strait of Hormuz blockade doesn't affect the European route, the Red Sea re - navigation plan is delayed due to the Middle - East situation, which can ease the运力 pressure but can't change the oversupply pattern [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the 04 off - season contract when the spot and futures converge in late March, and go long on the 07 and 08 peak - season contracts [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Overall Index: Affected by the continuous geopolitical tension, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose by 14.9% to 1710.35 on March 13 [8]. - European Routes: European economic uncertainty has increased due to geopolitical conflicts. The freight rate of the Asia - Europe route has fluctuated more. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports rose 11.4% to $1618 per TEU, and to Mediterranean basic ports rose 13.0% to $2666 per TEU [8]. - North American Routes: Energy prices are rising, and the US economy faces challenges. The transport demand in the North American market is weak, but the spot booking price is rising. On March 13, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports rose 15.9% and 14.5% to $2249 per FEU and $3111 per FEU respectively [9]. - Persian Gulf Routes: Due to the tense geopolitical situation, some shipping companies have to detour, resulting in a sharp drop in cargo volume but large fluctuations in freight rates. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Persian Gulf basic ports rose 40.8% to $3220 per TEU [9]. - Australia and New Zealand Routes: The market supply - demand is stable but lacks growth momentum. The average cabin utilization rate in Shanghai Port is about 95%, and the spot booking price has dropped. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Australia and New Zealand basic ports fell 6.7% to $624 per TEU [9]. - South American Routes: The transport supply - demand is balanced. The cargo volume has decreased, and the freight rate has slightly dropped after rising last period. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to South American basic ports fell 2.3% to $2559 per TEU [9]. - Japanese Routes: The transport demand is stable, and the freight rate remains unchanged. On March 13, the China - Japan route freight rate index was 957.78 points [9]. - Geopolitical News: Trump said Iran is willing to negotiate a cease - fire but the conditions are not good. Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran will continue to defend. Iran has launched attacks on US and Israeli targets. The US plans to form a "convoy alliance" in the Strait of Hormuz. Fuel prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions, and shipping companies like CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping have implemented emergency fuel surcharges [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: On March 16, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1556.49, up 0.7% from March 9; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1109.11, down 1.1% from March 9 [11]. - Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Quotes: Included data on contracts EC2604 - EC2612, such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change on March 17 [6]. - Shipping - Related Data Trends: Provided various shipping - related data trend charts, including container ship运力 in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][19]