建信期货豆粕日报-20260318

Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: March 18, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The external US soybean futures contracts are weak, with the main contract approaching 1155 cents. The market is more concerned about the Middle East situation. Although short - term oil prices are stable due to reserve releases, there is a basis for continued upward movement in the medium term, and agricultural product prices are affected by oil prices. The US President's visit to China may bring positive news for US soybean exports. Even with a bumper harvest in South America, US soybeans may still strengthen under macro - influence [6] - Domestic soybean meal rose this week, with a more significant increase than the external market. Due to changes in the Brazilian soybean export quarantine process, there may be a short - term supply shortage in April. In a bullish macro - environment, soybean meal may run strongly, but do not chase high entry considering the South American bumper harvest [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: For contracts such as bean粕2605, bean粕2607, and bean粕2609, the prices showed a decline, with the decline rates of - 0.42%, - 0.28%, and - 0.33% respectively. The trading volume and changes in open interest varied [6] - Operation Suggestions: In a bullish macro - environment, soybean meal may run strongly, but do not chase high entry considering the South American bumper harvest [6] 2. Industry News - USDA March Supply and Demand Report: Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be reduced from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, while exports remain at 8.25 million tons. Brazil's production is 180 million tons and exports are 114 million tons, both unchanged from last month. China's imports are 112 million tons, also unchanged. Global production is slightly reduced to 427.18 million tons, and global inventory is slightly reduced to 125.31 million tons [9] - USDA March Supply and Demand Report for the US: The sown area, harvested area, yield, production, exports, and ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 are all the same as in February. Imports and crush volume are both increased by 0.5 million bushels [10] - China's Import Data: In February 2026, the total import of soybeans was 5.976 million tons, the lowest this year. It increased by 146,000 tons (2.50%) compared with the same period last year and decreased by 595,000 tons compared with the previous month [10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spread between bean meal contracts, exchange rates, factory - gate prices, and basis of bean meal contracts [14][16][17]