有色早报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper price has oscillated downward this week, mainly due to significant macro - geopolitical disturbances. Despite the short - term decline, a mid - term bullish view on copper is maintained as it has demand growth and supply limitations [1]. - For aluminum, the overseas capacity loss is difficult to recover quickly in the short and medium term, and with the existence of risk premium, it is advisable to go long on dips [1]. - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are average, but limited long - term capital expenditure and supply disruptions from Iran are expected to support the short - term zinc price [2]. - Nickel is expected to maintain a range - bound trend under the situation of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy intervention [5]. - Stainless steel is expected to follow the nickel price and maintain a range - bound trend, with a generally weak fundamental situation [8]. - Lead is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend under the influence of overseas inventory drag and recycled lead profit support [12]. - Tin price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward elasticity; if liquidity tightens due to the US - Iran conflict, the tin price may have a large correction space [14]. - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are approaching a balanced state, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, it will mainly oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [15]. - Lithium carbonate is in a state of tight balance in the short - term, with a slowdown in de - stocking. The subsequent upside space needs futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, and the downside breakthrough requires demand collapse or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory: The copper price oscillated downward this week. The spot import profit, March import profit, and LME inventory changed by - 316.13, - 167.98, and 18775 respectively from March 11 to March 17 [1]. - Supply and Demand: Overseas, there are concerns about China's consumption ability. Domestically, the recovery of recycled copper processing enterprises is slow, and the supply of tax - included recycled copper is tight. The narrowing of the refined - scrap spread may drive further de - stocking of refined copper [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory: The Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased by 110, 110, and 150 respectively from March 11 to March 17. The LME inventory decreased by 2500 [1]. - Supply and Demand: A 600,000 - ton aluminum plant in Qatar suspended production cuts. The overseas spot is tight, but there is a risk of correction in long - position trading. In the short and medium term, it is advisable to go long on dips [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory: The Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong zinc ingot prices increased by 70, 80, and 80 respectively from March 11 to March 17. The LME zinc inventory increased by 20875 [2]. - Supply and Demand: The mid - term zinc ore supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons. Long - term factors are expected to support the short - term zinc price [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory: The domestic nickel price fluctuated. The LME inventory decreased by 174 from March 11 to March 17 [5]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of pure nickel decreased in February. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the LME is slightly de - stocking. The short - term fundamentals are weak. The nickel price is expected to range - bound due to policy intervention on the supply side [5]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory: The 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 100, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 from March 11 to March 17. The inventory decreased slightly this week [8]. - Supply and Demand: The steel mill production decreased slightly. The downstream is gradually recovering. The cost has increased. The fundamentals are generally weak, and it is expected to range - bound following the nickel price [8]. Lead - Price and Inventory: The spot import profit decreased by 41.02, and the LME inventory decreased by 200 from March 11 to March 17 [12]. - Supply and Demand: The primary lead production is resuming, and the recycled lead is expected to resume production in mid - March. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Tin - Price and Inventory: The tin price oscillated downward this week. The LME inventory increased by 30 from March 11 to March 17 [14]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is gradually recovering, but there are supply - side disturbances. The demand has a strong willingness to replenish inventory after the price decline. The inventory has accumulated. The tin price is greatly affected by liquidity [14]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory: The 421 Yunnan, 421 Sichuan, 553 East China, and 553 Tianjin basis all increased by 125 from March 11 to March 17, and the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged [15]. - Supply and Demand: The production is increasing, and the supply and demand are approaching balance. The price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, it will mainly oscillate at the cycle bottom [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory: The SMM electric and industrial carbonate prices increased by 1500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 72 from March 11 to March 17 [19]. - Supply and Demand: In March, the supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. The de - stocking is slowing down, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season. The upside and downside spaces are affected by different factors [19].