集运早报-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [2] Core View - It is recommended to wait and see, with the 04 contract gradually entering the delivery logic, and observe whether there are opportunities for basis repair. Although historically, the 6 - 7 and 6 - 8 reverse spreads are reasonably valued, it still depends on the duration of the geopolitical situation. If the issue is resolved in May, the current structure is also reasonable [2] Data Summary Futures Data - EC2604: yesterday's closing price was 2004.5, up 3.39%, with a basis of - 459.0, trading volume of 29117, and an open interest of 23452, down 1151 [2] - EC2605: yesterday's closing price was 2240.9, up 3.03%, with a basis of - 695.4, trading volume of 1452, and an open interest of 1928, down 29 [2] - EC2606: yesterday's closing price was 2453.0, up 2.45%, with a basis of - 907.5, trading volume of 9112, and an open interest of 14148, down 235 [2] - EC2607: yesterday's closing price was 2549.8, up 1.97%, with a basis of - 1004.3, trading volume of 171, and an open interest of 781, up 6 [2] - EC2608: yesterday's closing price was 2401.0, up 1.09%, with a basis of - 855.5, trading volume of 708, and an open interest of 2776, down 92 [2] - EC2609: yesterday's closing price was 1751.9, up 2.04%, with a basis of - 206.4, trading volume of 56, and an open interest of 534, down 42 [2] - EC2610: yesterday's closing price was 1580.0, up 0.77%, with a basis of - 34.5, trading volume of 2403, and an open interest of 7955, down 517 [2] - EC2612: yesterday's closing price was 1801.0, down 0.72%, with a basis of - 255.5, trading volume of 71, and an open interest of 405, up 2 [2] Month - spread Data - EC2604 - 2606: previous day was - 448.5, previous two days was - 455.6, previous three days was - 469.9, daily change was 7.1, weekly change was - 111.8 [2] - EC2604 - 2605: previous day was - 236.4, previous two days was - 236.2, previous three days was - 245.4, daily change was - 0.2, weekly change was - 57.3 [2] - EC2606 - 2610: previous day was 873.0, previous two days was 826.4, previous three days was 859.0, daily change was 46.6, weekly change was 79.6 [2] Spot Index Data - SCFIS (European Line): updated weekly on Mondays, announced on 2026/3/9, the current value was 1545.46 points, up 5.61% from the previous period, and the previous period was down 7.00% [2] - SCFI (European Line): updated weekly, announced on 2026/3/13, the current value was 1618 dollars/TEU, up 11.43% from the previous period, and the previous period was up 2.25% [2] European Line Spot Situation - In late March, OA and PA alliances, and MSC announced price increases to around 4000 US dollars - Week 12: MSK quoted 2250 US dollars (up 400 from the previous week), OA alliance quoted 2700 - 2800 US dollars, PA alliance quoted 2200 US dollars (large - ticket price down 200), MSC quoted 2740 US dollars (large - ticket price down 200), with an average of 2450 US dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market - Week 13: MSK's price remained flat at 2250 US dollars, and other shipping companies quoted around 2700 - 3000 US dollars - On Tuesday, Maersk opened bookings for the first week of April (Week 14) at 2650 US dollars (up 400 from the previous week) [3] Related News - On 3/17, Iran stated that it could legally attack countries that allow the US and Israel to use their territories for aggression - On 3/17, the Iranian Speaker said that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to the pre - war state - On 3/17, White House economic advisor Hassett said that oil tankers had started passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Iran war would last for weeks rather than months [4]