锌期货日报-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market's concern about inflation rebound has increased due to the impact of the Middle - East conflict on oil prices, and the US dollar index has strengthened continuously. The probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in this week's meeting is as high as 99.2%, and the expectation of interest rate cuts this year has been significantly revised down, further consolidating the strong position of the US dollar, which has put pressure on base metals. On the 17th, there was a large - scale inventory delivery overseas, and the LME inventory returned to over 110,000 tons. The LME zinc price dropped by more than 1 percentage point, dragging down the Shanghai zinc price. The main contract closed at 23,700 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan, a decline of 1.31%. The average price of SMM Zn50 domestic TC this week remained flat at 1,550 yuan/metal ton. Although the offers of imported ore increased, affected by overseas supply disruptions, the imported zinc concentrate index continued to decline to $11.25/ton. With the resumption of work in smelters and the increase in natural days, the refined zinc output in March will increase month - on - month. The SMM zinc ingot inventory continued to accumulate on Monday, increasing by 0.7 tons to 275,800 tons compared with last Friday. As the price dropped, downstream buyers increased their spot purchases at low prices. The Shanghai market offered a discount of 80 yuan/ton to the 04 contract, the Tianjin market offered a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market offered a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The social inventory may decline slightly this week, but the inflection point of inventory decline has not been confirmed. In the short term, the zinc price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures Market Quotes: For the Shanghai zinc futures contracts, the 2604 contract opened at 23,930 yuan/ton, closed at 23,700 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,025 yuan/ton, a low of 23,695 yuan/ton, a decline of 315 yuan, a decline rate of 1.31%, and the position volume was 73,741 with a change of 67,561. The 2605 contract opened at 24,030 yuan/ton, closed at 23,730 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,060 yuan/ton, a low of 23,720 yuan/ton, a decline of 300 yuan, a decline rate of 1.25%, and the position volume was 80,471 with a change of 3,154. The 2606 contract opened at 24,055 yuan/ton, closed at 23,785 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,100 yuan/ton, a low of 23,775 yuan/ton, a decline of 295 yuan, a decline rate of 1.23%, and the position volume was 27,745 with a change of - 45,777 [7] - Market Influencing Factors: Affected by the Middle - East conflict and the Fed's interest rate policy, the US dollar strengthened, and base metals were under pressure. Overseas inventory delivery led to a decline in the LME zinc price, which in turn affected the Shanghai zinc price. The domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase in March, and the inventory has accumulated. The downstream has increased spot purchases at low prices, and the short - term zinc price is expected to be weak and volatile [7] 3.2 Industry News - 0 Zinc Transaction Prices: On March 17, 2026, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were concentrated between 23,805 - 23,945 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction prices of Shuangyan brand were between 23,915 - 24,055 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc was mainly traded between 23,735 - 23,875 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the SMM average price [8] - Regional Market Quotes: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 23,815 - 23,935 yuan/ton, with a discount of - 85 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. In the Tianjin market, the 0 zinc ingot was mainly traded between 23,760 - 23,970 yuan/ton, and the Zijin brand was traded between 23,830 - 24,000 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingot was traded around 23,740 - 23,910 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, the 0 zinc was mainly traded between 23,800 - 23,980 yuan/ton, with a discount of 95 - 75 yuan/ton to the 2605 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot [8] 3.3 Data Overview - Data Charts: The report includes charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][11]