大越期货沪铜早报-20260318

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Copper prices hit a new high due to geopolitical disturbances and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia. Currently, they are fluctuating at a high level and are expected to move in a short - term shock. Attention should be paid to Middle East events. The overall situation is a combination of multiple positive and negative factors [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Supply is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity; this is a positive factor [3]. - The basis is 995 with the spot price at 100335, showing a premium over the futures, which is positive [3]. - On March 17, copper inventory increased by 18775 tons to 330375 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 8313 tons to 433458 tons compared to last week, which is negative [3]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, which is negative [3]. - The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is positive [3]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Geopolitical disturbances between Russia and Ukraine, and between Iran, the US, and Israel; potential Fed rate cuts; slow mine production increase and the production cut event at the Freeport Indonesia mining area [5]. - Likely Negative Factors: Repeated US comprehensive tariffs; the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. 3.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory: On March 17, copper inventory increased by 18775 tons to 330375 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 8313 tons to 433458 tons compared to last week [3]. - Bonded area inventory: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. 3.4 Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [21].