大越期货棉花早报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are generally positive. The global consumption in the 26/27 period is 25 million tons, and the production is 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease by more than 10%. The export of textiles and clothing from January to February increased by 17.6% year - on - year, and the import of cotton and cotton yarn in December also increased year - on - year. The basis shows a premium over futures, the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions are long, but the net long positions are decreasing, and the main trend is unclear. However, there may be a technical correction in the later stage if there is no new positive news [4]. - The positive factors include the regulation of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 with an expected reduction of over 10%, downstream restocking before the Spring Festival, the reduction of export tariffs to the US, the easing of Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [5]. - The negative factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, the increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - There is no information about the previous day review in the provided content. 3.2 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of cotton are analyzed from multiple aspects. The global and domestic supply - demand data are presented, including production, consumption, and inventory. The basis, inventory, market trend, and main positions are also considered. The report points out that although there are current positive factors, there may be a technical correction in the later stage [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply - Demand Data: According to ICAC, in the 26/27 period, global cotton consumption is 25 million tons, and production is 24.8 million tons. The USDA March report shows that in the 25/26 period, the production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 period shows a production of 6.64 million tons, an import of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: The data shows the production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2025/26, and the monthly and year - on - year changes [11][12]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): Compares the 2025/26 and 2026/27 periods, showing that the production in 2026/27 is expected to decline by 4%, mainly from Brazil and the US; the consumption is relatively stable; the ending inventory is expected to decline by 1%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline slightly [13]. - Domestic Cotton Data: The Ministry of Agriculture's data on China's cotton from 2024/25 to 2025/26 includes sowing area, yield, import, consumption, ending inventory, and price range [15]. 3.5 Position Data - There is no information about position data in the provided content.