大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative candlestick, increased trading volume, and both long - and short - positions increasing, with the long - positions increasing slightly more. Overall, it was a situation of increasing volume and falling prices. The market may experience a volatile weakening in the short term. - Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing short - term support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined, operating in the weak zone with intensified overselling. The trend indicator showed that the long - position strength decreased, the short - position strength increased, and the short - position advantage expanded. - The recommended operation for Shanghai Zinc ZN2605 is to expect a volatile weakening [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1197000 tons, consumption was 1168000 tons, with a supply surplus of 29000 tons. From January to November 2025, global zinc plate production was 12756100 tons, consumption was 13106500 tons, with a supply shortage of 350400 tons. In November 2025, global zinc mine production was 1069000 tons. From January to November 2025, global zinc mine production was 12141900 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The spot price was 23900, with a basis of + 170, a bullish factor [2]. - On March 17, LME zinc inventory increased by 20875 tons to 118375 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 574 tons to 98670 tons compared to the previous day, a bearish factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, a bearish factor [2]. - The main positions were net long, with an increase in long - positions, a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on March 17 - The report provides quotes for zinc futures contracts with different delivery months, including pre - settlement price, opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading value, and open interest and its changes. For example, for the 2604 contract, the pre - settlement price was 24015, the closing price was 23700, with a price change of - 315, and the trading volume was 81736 lots [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on March 17 - The spot TC of zinc concentrate was 1500 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC of imported zinc concentrate was 20 US dollars/ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions such as Anhui, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang increased, with prices ranging from 23810 - 23985 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/3/5 - 2026/3/16) - From March 5 to March 16, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in China's main markets increased from 21.36 million tons to 23.62 million tons. Compared with March 9, the inventory increased by 1.79 million tons, and compared with March 12, it increased by 0.51 million tons [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on March 17 - The total zinc warrants on the SHFE on March 17 were 98670 tons, with an increase of 574 tons, mainly from the increase in Guangdong's warrants [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on March 17 - The previous day's LME zinc inventory was 97500 tons, with an inflow of 21650 tons, an outflow of 775 tons, and the current inventory was 118375 tons, an increase of 20875 tons. The registered warrants were 112225 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 6150 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 5.20% [7]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on March 17 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, and Longnan was 20560 yuan/ton, with an increase of 60 yuan/ton, while in Hechi and Chifeng, it was 20460 yuan/ton, also with an increase of 60 yuan/ton [9]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on March 17 - The price of 0 zinc ingots of different brands, such as Torch, Huxin, and Zai, increased by 70 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 23580 - 24580 yuan/ton [12]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - The planned production in February was 468700 tons, the actual production was 470900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.87%, and the planned production in March was 490200 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on March 17 - The processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was 1500 yuan/metal ton, while in some regions like Hechi, the average processing fee was 1600 yuan/metal ton. The processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate at the port was 20 US dollars/kiloton [16]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on March 17 - The report shows the trading volume, long - position, and short - position rankings of different members. For example, CITIC Futures ranked first in trading volume with 15494 lots and an increase of 1931 lots. In terms of long - positions, CITIC Futures also ranked first with 12864 lots but a decrease of 217 lots. In terms of short - positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 9323 lots and an increase of 93 lots [17].