大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260318

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - 沪镍: The external market has declined and continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply in March is expected to increase, domestic inventory is piling up, and the market supply is sufficient. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, while the RKAB policy in Indonesia is still having an impact. The price of nickel - iron is weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis is positive, inventory is negative, the disk is neutral, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2] - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, the price of nickel - iron is weakly stable, and the cost line provides strong support. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is weak. The basis is positive, inventory is neutral, the disk is neutral. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures prices: On March 17, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 135,940, down 460 from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 17,255, down 230; the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,095, down 25. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 135,250, down 1250, and the cold - rolled index was 13,631, down 67 [10] - Spot prices: On March 17, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 139,950, up 1250; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 143,350, up 1250; the price of 1 imported nickel was 136,750, up 1500; the price of nickel beans was 139,250, up 1400. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,100, 15,000, 15,100, and 15,150 respectively [10] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1912 tons and 2894 tons respectively. On March 17, LME nickel inventory was 283,740, down 174 from the previous day; the nickel warehouse receipt was 57,247, down 60; the total inventory was 340,987, down 234 [12][13] Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of the 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons month - on - month. On March 17, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt was 53,902, an increase of 1188 from the previous day [17][18] Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 17, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 14.5 and 15.5 US dollars per ton respectively. The price of high - nickel wet ton was 1094.24 yuan per nickel point, down 0.75; the price of low - nickel wet ton was 3675 yuan per ton, unchanged [21] Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 14,198, the production cost using scrap steel was 14,086, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 17,990 [23] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 134,742 yuan per ton [26]