大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with a slightly bullish trend. The price of coke is expected to be stable with a slightly bullish trend in the short - term [2][6] - Factors contributing to the coking coal price trend include stable coal supply, increased procurement of some coking enterprises and coal washing plants, and support from rising steel billet prices. For coke, factors include the cost support from the rebound of coking coal price, increased demand from downstream steel mills, and improved market demand [2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Regional mainstream large mines are operating normally, with stable coal supply. As terminal prices and the futures market rebound, raw material sentiment has improved. Some coking enterprises and coal washing plants have increased procurement of cost - effective coal, and the market price shows more increases than decreases. The short - term coking coal price is volatile and slightly bullish [2] - Basis: The spot market price is 1210, and the basis is 34, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1971 tons, a decrease of 243 tons compared to last week, including 820 tons in steel mills, 258 tons in ports, and 893 tons in independent coking enterprises [2] - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [3] - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net long, with a decrease in long positions [3] - Expectation: Coking and steel enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed. Recently, steel sales have improved, and the demand has increased significantly compared to the previous period. With the increase in steel billet prices, the coking coal price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [2] - Positive Factors: Rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [5] - Negative Factors: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5] Coke - Fundamentals: Recently, the price of coking coal has stabilized and rebounded, with more premium situations in online auctions, providing cost support for coke. Coking enterprises are operating normally, with increasing coke production. Downstream steel mills are gradually resuming production, increasing the demand for coke. Coking enterprises' inventories are decreasing [6] - Basis: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 112, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [6] - Inventory: The total sample inventory of coke is 944 tons, a decrease of 3 tons compared to last week, including 689 tons in steel mills, 199 tons in ports, and 56 tons in independent coking enterprises [6] - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6] - Main Position: The main position of coke is net long, with a decrease in long positions [6] - Expectation: The rigid demand for coke from steel mills has increased, and the procurement mentality has changed. Some steel mills with low inventory are actively replenishing. The market demand is gradually improving, and the procurement intensity of steel mills has increased, driving the reduction of coking enterprise inventories. Coke supply and demand are developing favorably, and the price is expected to be stable with a slightly bullish trend in the short - term [6] - Positive Factors: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8] - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [8] 3.2 Price - Imported Coking Coal: On March 17, 2026, the prices of various imported coking coals from Russia and Australia are listed, with some price increases [9] - Port Metallurgical Coke: On March 17, 2026, the prices of port metallurgical coke are listed, with no price changes [10] 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: The coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, unchanged from last week; the coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons compared to last week [20] - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons compared to last week [24] - Steel Mill Inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons compared to last week [29]