大越期货白糖早报-20260318

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zheng sugar has been oscillating upward after the Spring Festival. The K-line has stood above the long-term moving average, and the moving averages are starting to diverge upward. Technically, there is a trend of moving out of the right-side market. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching, the crude oil price is rising, and the price of sugar-made ethanol is increasing, which indirectly supports the white sugar price. The white sugar trend moves forward three steps and retreats two steps, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The short-long strategy can be adopted when the price drops during the session [5][9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Datagro predicts a sugar deficit of 2.68 million tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO expects a global sugar market surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics forecasts that the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 year will shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 million tons in the 25/26 year. Green Pool estimates a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 year, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 year. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season in China was 6.89 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. The estimated sugar imports in China from January to February 2026 were 400,000 - 500,000 tons; in December 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 69,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,480, and the basis is 74 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of January, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar season was 3.99 million tons [6]. - Market: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - Likely Positive Factors: The sugar production in Brazil may decline in the 26/27 year. The tariff on syrup has increased. Coca-Cola in the United States has changed its formula to use sucrose. The crude oil price is rising [7]. - Likely Negative Factors: The global white sugar production has increased, and there is a surplus in the new year. The price of foreign sugar has fallen to around 14.5 cents per pound, the import profit window has opened, and the import impact has increased [7]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions in the Past 3 Months for the 25/26 Season: The International Sugar Organization predicts a production of 181.29 million tons, consumption of 180.07 million tons, and a supply surplus of 1.22 million tons in February 2026, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the November prediction. StoneX forecasts a production of 194.6 million tons, consumption of 193.7 million tons, and a supply surplus of 870,000 tons in March 2026, a significant 70% decrease from the February prediction. Czarnikow estimates a production of 184.4 million tons, consumption of 177.7 million tons, and a supply surplus of 6.7 million tons in March 2026, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous estimate. Green Pool predicts a supply surplus of 2.74 million tons in early March 2026. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts a production of 189.3 million tons, consumption of 177.9 million tons, and a surplus in February 2026 [31]. - Sugar Production and Related Data in China from 2023/24 to 2025/26: The sugarcane planting area, sugar beet planting area, sugarcane yield per hectare, sugar beet yield per hectare, sugar production, sugar imports, sugar consumption, and other data are provided. For example, in the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.7 million tons [33]. - Cost of Imported Raw Sugar after Processing and Tax Payment (50% Tariff): The ICE raw sugar closing price, RMB exchange rate, in-quota cost, and out-of-quota cost from December 2025 to March 2026 are presented. For example, on March 11, 2026, the ICE raw sugar closing price was 14.22 cents per pound, the RMB exchange rate was 6.8749, the in-quota cost was 4,015 yuan per ton, and the out-of-quota cost was 5,100 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].