大越期货油脂早报-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate on the strong side. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the month-end inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,860, the basis is 216, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,860, the basis is -94, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,320, the basis is 487, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are increasing. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. The palm oil tremor season [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level in history, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Soybean Oil Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [2] - Palm Oil Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 46% [3] - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 44% [4] - Rapeseed Inventory: Not provided - Domestic Total Inventory of Oils and Fats: Not provided - Soybean Meal Inventory: Not provided - Oil Mill Soybean Crushing: Not provided Demand - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: Not provided - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: Not provided