大越期货纯碱早报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant due to the increased production load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II and high - level production of alkaline plants. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at the highest level in the same period of history. Considering multiple factors such as the basis, inventory, and main positions, the short - term soda ash is expected to fluctuate mainly, with a cost - side boost. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased 1.04% from 1256 yuan/ton to 1243 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased 0.81% from 1230 yuan/ton to 1220 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased 11.54% from - 26 yuan/ton to - 23 yuan/ton. [5] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe market is 1220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. [11] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 94.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is 86 yuan/ton, at a historical low. [14] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87%. [17] - The weekly output of soda ash is 80.92 tons, including 42.83 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. [19] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 101.92%. [22] - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.69 tons, and the operating rate is 71.05%. [25] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national soda ash plants is 193.17 tons, a 0.80% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average. [30] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E. [31] 3.7 Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: Less cold repair of downstream float glass and stable output; the conflict between the US and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market. [4] - Likely Negative Factors: The production load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line increases, and there is no new maintenance plan, so the output is expected to remain at a high level; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is reduced, and the demand for soda ash weakens. [4] - Main Logic: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. [4]