原油成品油早报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the impact of the US - Iran situation on the global crude oil market supply has escalated. VLCCs still cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and about 10 million barrels per day of Middle - East production has been shut down. The US launched an air strike on Kharg Island over the weekend, but Iran's crude oil export facilities were not damaged. The US called on its allies to jointly maintain the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency announced the largest - scale emergency oil reserve release in history, with 32 member countries planning to release about 400 million barrels of oil. However, the release speed is restricted by logistics and transportation organizations and cannot fundamentally relieve the upstream production interruption problem. The core depends on the duration of the strait blockade. Currently, the forward curve of crude oil prices is pricing in an interruption disturbance of about 30 days, but according to the current situation, the disturbance time is expected to be longer. Next week, the international crude oil market still faces upward price risks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From March 11 to March 17, 2026, WTI increased by $2.71 to $96.21, BRENT increased by $3.21 to $103.42, and DUBAI decreased by $7.06 to $122.84. Other price indicators such as BRENT 1 - 2 month spread, WTI - BRENT, etc., also showed corresponding changes [3]. - For domestic and other related products, OMAN increased by $6.21 to $149.84, domestic gasoline remained at 9400, and domestic diesel increased by 327 to 7438. Other indicators also had their respective changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iraq and the Kurdish region reached an agreement to resume oil exports through the Kurdish pipeline on Wednesday morning local time. Iraq can transport at least 150,000 - 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Kirkuk through the northern pipeline, and the Kurdish region can transport 210,000 barrels per day [3]. - Iraq is negotiating with Iran to ensure that some of its oil tankers can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Due to the Middle - East war, Iraq has reduced its daily crude oil production from about 4.2 million barrels to just over 1 million barrels [4]. - The Trump administration intends to further relax sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry to increase crude oil production in response to rising oil prices. Measures may include issuing more individual licenses and establishing a broader mechanism [4]. - Iran launched an attack on a large - scale natural gas field in the UAE, causing a fire and suspending operations. This is Iran's first attack on the UAE's upstream oil and gas facilities in the war [5]. 3.3 Weekly Inventory - For the week ending March 13, the US API crude oil inventory was 6.556 million barrels, with an expected 73,000 barrels and a previous value of - 1.678 million barrels. The API gasoline inventory was - 4.56 million barrels, with an expected - 1.815 million barrels and a previous value of - 1.838 million barrels. The API refined oil inventory was - 1.394 million barrels, with an expected - 1.721 million barrels and a previous value of - 2.257 million barrels [5].