大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260318

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: March 18, 2026 - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be strong today due to factors such as cost support, strong external crude oil prices, and the recovery of downstream demand [4][7] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted. Many countries have confirmed the release of strategic reserves, and external crude oil prices are continuously strong. On the supply and demand side, the demand for agricultural films has started, but high - priced raw materials have led to a large number of downstream enterprises waiting and limited transactions. Packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, with limited improvement. The operating rate of pipes remains low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8300 (-100), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -196, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.3%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 625,000 tons (+31,000), which is neutral [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, external crude oil is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PE will trend strongly today [4] - Leveraging Factors: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [6] - Negative Factors: Geopolitical factors [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted. Many countries have confirmed the release of strategic reserves, and external crude oil prices are continuously strong. On the supply and demand side, multiple PDH units have been shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises are cautious in production due to poor profits. The operating rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8700 (-150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 29, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 658,000 tons (+3,000), which is neutral [7] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - Main Position: The main position of PP is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, external crude oil is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PP will trend strongly today [7] - Leveraging Factors: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [8] - Negative Factors: Geopolitical factors and international policy games [8] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 8300 (-100), the price of the 05 contract is 8496 (-181), the basis is -196, the import price in US dollars is 866 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 7337 (unchanged), and the import price difference is 963 (-100). The warehouse receipt is 7851 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 625,000 tons, and the social inventory is 619,000 tons (-44,000) [9] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 8700 (-150), the price of the 05 contract is 8671 (-186), the basis is 29, the import price in US dollars is 1180 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 9943 (unchanged), and the import price difference is -1243 (-150). The warehouse receipt is 17,670 (-1757), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 658,000 tons, and the social inventory is 312,000 tons (-12,000) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a significant increase of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has shown a downward trend, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with an expected increase of 11.0% in 2025E. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [16]