大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate are favorable, with supply increasing, demand potentially strengthening, and inventory likely to be reduced. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 150,320 - 161,040 [8]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk factors are the impact of shutdown, production reduction, or maintenance plans and the start - up time of industrial clearance [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 23,426 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 105,780 tons, a 5.22% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,019 tons, a 1.17% week - on - week increase. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 154,652 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The production income is - 113 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 149,352 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production income is 3,019 yuan/ton, resulting in a profit. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On March 17, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 2,680 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 16,292 tons, a 6.77% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,647 tons, a 4.32% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 37,020 tons, a 2.93% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 98,959 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main position decreased, showing a bearish situation [8]. - Likely Factors: Lithium mica manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production and a month - on - month decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile [9]. - Bearish Factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level, with a limited decline [10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price and Basis: The prices of most lithium - related products showed fluctuations. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.16% to 2,185 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.96% to 158,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly start - up rate was 73.46%, with no change. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 628,032 tons, a 7.31% month - on - month decrease, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an 8.77% month - on - month increase [17]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly start - up rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 7.14% to 65%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 7.67% to 300,250 tons, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium decreased by 12.20% to 348,200 tons. The monthly export volume of lithium iron phosphate lithium decreased by 47.82% to 4,028,745 kilograms [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore (6% CIF) has fluctuated over the years. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also shown different trends in different years [24]. - Import and Self - sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also shown certain trends [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Start - up Rate and Production: The weekly start - up rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) has fluctuated. The monthly production of lithium carbonate has also changed, with different trends in battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate [31]. - Import and Recycling: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed, and the recycling of waste lithium batteries has also shown certain trends [31][34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has fluctuated over the years. The monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) has also changed [40]. - Export: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has shown different trends in different years [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Materials: The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have fluctuated over the years. The profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export has also changed [46][49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects have shown different trends [54]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream has also changed [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - Price and Production: The price of batteries has fluctuated, and the monthly production of power cells (ternary and lithium iron phosphate) has also changed [58]. - Loading and Export: The monthly loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials) has decreased, and the export volume of lithium batteries has shown different trends in different years [58]. 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - Inventory and Production: The inventory of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries) has changed, and the monthly production of energy - storage cells has also shown different trends [60]. - Bidding and Cost: The energy - storage system EPC bidding and the cost of 314Ah lithium iron phosphate energy - storage cells have also changed [60]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and the cost and profit of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) have also changed [63]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and the monthly production of ternary precursors (333, 523, 622, 811, NCA) has also changed [63]. 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost: The price of ternary materials has fluctuated, and the cost and profit of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) have also changed [69]. - Start - up Rate and Production: The weekly start - up rate of ternary materials has fluctuated, and the production of ternary materials (NCA, 3 - series, 5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has also changed [69]. 3.12 Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Lithium Iron Phosphate - Price and Cost: The price of lithium iron phosphate/lithium iron phosphate has fluctuated, and the production cost of lithium iron phosphate and the cost - profit trend of lithium iron phosphate have also changed [73]. - Capacity and Production: The capacity of lithium iron phosphate/lithium iron phosphate has increased, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate has also changed [73][76]. 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed, and the sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has also increased [81][82]. - Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have also changed [85].