大越期货豆粕早报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2605): Expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100. Influenced by the upward trend of US soybeans, short - term shock is on the strong side. The basis is at a premium, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions have decreased with capital inflow [9]. - Soybeans (A2605): Expected to fluctuate between 4880 and 4980. US soybeans are in a short - term strong shock, and domestic soybeans maintain a high - level shock. The basis is at a discount, inventory is relatively high, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions have decreased with capital inflow [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal (M2605) is in the range of 3040 - 3100, and Soybeans (A2605) is in the range of 4880 - 4980. The market is affected by factors such as US - China trade agreements, South American weather, and Middle - East conflicts [9][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on US - China tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still variables in the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in March. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high, and it was in a short - term strong shock, waiting for further clarity on the Middle - East situation, South American soybean production, and the follow - up of US - China trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Positive factors: Preliminary agreement on US - China trade negotiations, no pressure on soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and variable weather in South American soybean - producing areas. - Negative factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in March, and expected high yield of South American soybeans under normal weather conditions. - Soybeans - Positive factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price. - Negative factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses the price [14][15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The average transaction price and volume from March 9th to 17th are presented, and the price of soybean meal futures rebounded, with the spot price relatively strong and the premium at a relatively high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills increased from a low level, and the soybean meal production in February decreased slightly year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased from a low level, and short - term stocking demand increased [16][23][25]. - Soybeans: The futures and spot prices from March 10th to 17th are presented, and the soybean inventory of oil mills increased, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly at a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the shock of US soybeans, and the on - disk profit fluctuated slightly [18][50][56]. 3.5 Position Data - For both soybean meal and soybeans, the main short positions decreased, and capital flowed in [9][11]. 3.6 Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Global: From 2016 to 2025, data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [32]. - Domestic: From 2016 to 2025, data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [33]. 3.7 Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress - 2023/24 Argentina: Data on the sowing and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [34]. - 2024 US: Data on the sowing, growth, and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38]. - 2024/25 Brazil: Data on the planting and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [39][40]. - 2024/25 Argentina: Data on the planting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [41]. - 2025/26 Brazil: Data on the planting and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [42]. - 2025/26 Argentina: Data on the planting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [43]. 3.8 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From July 2025 to February 2026, data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, Brazilian soybean output, and Argentine soybean output are provided [44]. 3.9 Other Market Data - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans increased from a low level and increased year - on - year. The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit deficit expanded, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio dropped to a low level [45][47][58][60][62][64][66].