Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 24.5686%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 0.7302%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 539.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 308.9886 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 83.40%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Overall judgment: The fundamentals are slightly positive, the basis is negative, the inventory situation is slightly positive, the disk is slightly positive, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2606 will fluctuate in the range of 4324 - 4494 [8][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Supply: The total domestic asphalt production plan in March 2026 was 2.187 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 24.5686%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 are all below the historical average, with different changes [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 539.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 308.9886 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 83.40%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil is weakening, and short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Comprehensive judgment: The fundamentals are slightly positive, the basis is negative, the inventory situation is slightly positive, the disk is slightly positive, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2606 will fluctuate in the range of 4324 - 4494 [8][9]. - Factors: Bullish factor is that the crude oil cost is relatively high, providing some support; bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - price goods and overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is high supply pressure and weak demand recovery [12][13][14]. 2. Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Different contracts have different price changes, such as the 06 contract closing at 4409, a decrease of 55 from the previous value, a decline of 1.23% [16]. - Basis: On March 17th, the Shandong spot price was 4090 yuan/ton, and the 06 contract basis was - 319 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.179 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.61%; the in - factory inventory was 786,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.88% [8]. - Other data: There are also data on production, shipments,开工率, and profit margins, showing different trends [18]. 3. Asphalt Futures Market - Various Analyses - Basis trend: There are charts showing the historical trends of Shandong and East China basis from 2020 - 2026 [20][22]. - Spread analysis: - Main contract spread: There are charts showing the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 - 2023 [25]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: There are charts showing the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2026 [28]. - Crude oil cracking spread: There are charts showing the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 - 2026 [31]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: There are charts showing the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2026 [35]. 4. Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - There is a chart showing the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 - 2026 [38]. 5. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: There is a chart showing the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2026 [41]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: There is a chart showing the historical coking - asphalt profit spread trends from 2020 - 2026 [44]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: There is a chart showing the weekly shipment volume trends from 2020 - 2026 [48]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: There is a chart showing the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2026 [51]. - Production: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly production trends from 2019 - 2026 [54]. - Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: There is a chart showing the Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trends from 2018 - 2026 [58]. - Local refinery asphalt production: There is a chart showing the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2026 [61]. -开工率: There is a chart showing the weekly开工率 trends from 2023 - 2026 [64]. - Maintenance loss volume estimate: There is a chart showing the maintenance loss volume estimate trends from 2018 - 2026 [67]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: There are charts showing the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) trends from 2019 - 2026 [70]. - Social inventory and in - factory inventory: There are charts showing the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) trends from 2022 - 2026 [74]. - In - factory inventory inventory ratio: There is a chart showing the in - factory inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2026 [78]. - Import and export situation: - Asphalt export and import trends: There are charts showing the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025 [81]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: There is a chart showing the South Korean asphalt import price difference trends from 2020 - 2026 [86]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: There is a chart showing the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2026 [87]. - Apparent consumption: There is a chart showing the apparent consumption trends from 2019 - 2025 [90]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment: There is a chart showing the highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment trends from 2020 - 2025 [93]. - New local special bonds: There is a chart showing the new local special bonds trends from 2019 - 2026 [95]. - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: There is a chart showing the infrastructure investment completion year - on - year trends from 2020 - 2024 [95]. - Downstream machinery demand: There are charts showing the asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales trends from 2019 - 2026, as well as the excavator monthly working hours trends from 2020 - 2026 [97][101]. - Asphalt开工率: There are charts showing the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 trends from 2019 - 2026 [102][105][107]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: There is a chart showing the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 - 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [112].
大越期货沥青期货早报-20260318
Da Yue Qi Huo·2026-03-18 02:10