大越期货原油早报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The war tension in the Middle East continues, with most energy - transport ships still grounded and the suspension of oil operations at the Fujairah Port in the UAE intensifying the supply shortage. Short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. For SC2605, operate in the 760 - 780 range and wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Iraq is negotiating with Iran to ensure the passage of some oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The Fujairah Port in the UAE has suspended oil loading operations. The daily passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from about 100 to about 2, with about 400 still trapped, and only a few ships can pass along the Iranian coastline; neutral [3]. - Basis: On March 17, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $157.85 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $100.99 per barrel. The basis was 46.20 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price; bullish [3]. - Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 73,000 barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending March 6 increased by 3.824 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.055 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory for the week ending March 6 increased by 117,000 barrels. As of March 17, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.511 million barrels, unchanged; bearish [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average; bullish [3]. - Main positions: As of March 10, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased; bullish [3]. - Expectation: Overnight, a senior Iranian official was attacked and killed, and the war tension continues. Although some energy - transport ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, most ships remain grounded. The suspension of oil operations at the Fujairah Port in the UAE due to a new attack has intensified the supply shortage. Short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. For SC2605, operate in the 760 - 780 range and wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the long - term [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The Fujairah Port, an important export terminal, has stopped oil loading operations due to a new attack. It usually transports over 1 million barrels of Murban crude oil per day for UAE oil companies. Although it is still operating, its production capacity has declined [5]. - Traders are selling near - term crude oil and buying cheaper long - term crude oil in anticipation of the US strategic petroleum reserve release. The US plans to release 172 million barrels of crude oil in a "swap" mechanism. The first batch of crude oil will be delivered in April and May and repaid by September 2028. The price of WTI crude oil futures for 2027 delivery has increased, while the price of the April contract has decreased. The release of the emergency reserve has curbed some of the increase in crude oil futures [5]. - Some ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz by hugging the Iranian coastline. For example, the Indian ship "Nanda Devi" loaded with liquefied petroleum gas arrived at the Vadinar Port on March 17 after obtaining permission to pass through the strait [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Not mentioned in the provided content - Bearish factors: Trump intends to end the war quickly [6] - Market driver: In the short - term, continue to monitor geopolitical changes; in the long - term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for a reversal [6] - Risk points: Guaranteed passage through the strait; rapid cooling of the war [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from $100.21 to $103.42, a rise of 3.20%; WTI crude oil increased from $93.50 to $96.21, a rise of 2.90%; SC crude oil decreased from 761.8 to 744.5, a decline of 2.27%; Oman crude oil increased from $147.79 to $152.58, a rise of 3.24% [7]. - Spot market: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $104.16 to $103.47, a decline of 0.66%; WTI decreased from $93.50 to $96.21, a rise of 2.90%; Oman crude oil increased from $153.49 to $157.85, a rise of 2.84%; Shengli crude oil increased from $99.95 to $101.55, a rise of 1.60%; Dubai crude oil increased from $153.38 to $157.69, a rise of 2.81% [9]. - Inventory data: API inventory and EIA inventory data for different time periods are provided, showing the changes in inventory levels [11][13]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI crude oil: As of March 10, the net long position was 228,015, an increase of 55,865 [16]. - Brent crude oil: As of March 10, the net long position was 351,032, an increase of 65,438 [18].