瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic calcium carbide method device load is increased to compensate for the loss of ethylene method device production, and the supply side changes little. The downstream is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and the operating rate is expected to recover to a relatively high level throughout the year. Many overseas devices in countries such as South Korea are shut down due to raw material supply problems, which is beneficial for PVC exports. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the previous high inventory is expected to be digested. In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical news, and technically, pay attention to the support around 5540 and the resistance around 6045 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan; the trading volume is 2,005,916 lots, a decrease of 425,714 lots; the open interest is 855,380 lots, a decrease of 46,740 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures is 1,029,916 lots, a decrease of 45,358 lots; the short position is 1,044,625 lots, a decrease of 40,512 lots; the net long position is -14,709 lots, a decrease of 4,846 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 6,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,737.78 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.52 yuan. In South China, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,856.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.12 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 910 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,643 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 787 US dollars/ton, an increase of 245 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 788 US dollars/ton, an increase of 210 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 300 US dollars/ton, an increase of 55 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 299 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 81.35%, an increase of 0.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 82.93%, an increase of 2.28%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 77.6%, a decrease of 4.61%. The total social inventory of PVC is 63.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons. The total social inventory in East China is 58.08 million tons, unchanged; in South China, it is 5.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,598.9029 million square meters, an increase of 38.2409 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 448.9598 billion yuan, an increase of 287.141 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 37.97%, a decrease of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 31.22%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 58.76%, a decrease of 5.73%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 58.75%, a decrease of 5.75% [3] 3.7 Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 81.35%, an increase of 0.24% compared with the previous period. From March 7th to 13th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 3.49% to 39.33% compared with the previous period. Among them, the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 38%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.61% to 30%. As of March 12th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.4072 million tons, an increase of 0.24% compared with the previous week. From March 6th to 12th, the national average cost of calcium carbide method increased by 8.02% to 5,150 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene method increased by 20.22% to 6,452 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide method increased by 159 yuan/ton to 267 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene method increased by 48 yuan/ton to - 235 yuan/ton [3]