瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The methanol port inventory continues to decline. The short - term port methanol inventory is expected to continue to fall, and attention should be paid to the changes in提货量 and the impact of geopolitical situations on supply expectations [3]. - The MTO industry's start - up decreased due to the short - term shutdown of the second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - The short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,912 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 65 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 193 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton [3]. - The main contract's open interest is 611,729 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 44,841 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 17,583 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 21,501 lots [3]. - The number of warehouse receipts is 11,117, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [3]. 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,880 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2,212.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17.5 yuan/ton [3]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 607.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 32 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 355 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 510 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 390 euros/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 155 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 US dollars [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 97.28 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.56 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 34 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.51 tons [3]. - The methanol import profit is - 125.17 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.734 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 316,400 tons [3]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 485,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 37,700 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 90.15%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 37.6%, with a week - on - week increase of 8.88%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 4.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.28% [3]. - The acetic acid operating rate is 85.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.29%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.94%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.22% [3]. - The olefin operating rate is 84.08%, unchanged from the previous week; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 908 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 238 yuan/ton [3]. 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 70.61%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 53.2%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 66.17%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 66.18%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.43% [3]. 7. Industry News - As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 485,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,700 tons or 7.21%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 279,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 140,000 tons or 5.26% [3]. - As of March 18, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.2617 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 27,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 23,500 tons. The port inventory continued to decline this week [3]. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.82%. The second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei had a short - term shutdown, causing a decline in the MTO industry's start - up [3].